The Alagoas Senate race for the two seats features a tight contest among Arthur Lira (PP), incumbent Renan Calheiros (MDB), and late entrant Marina JHC (PSDB), with the most recent Quaest survey from late August showing them statistically tied at 20%, 18%, and 15% respectively in combined first- and second-choice intentions amid a 3-point margin of error. High undecided rates near 19%, 86% spontaneous non-recognition of candidates, and the parallel gubernatorial matchup between JHC and Renan Filho have sustained volatility after Alfredo Gaspar's withdrawal. Trader consensus reflects these polling dynamics and the potential for shifts once formal campaigning intensifies ahead of October.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRenan 48%
Arthur Lira 45%
Marina JHC 10.1%
Dr. Wanderley 2.5%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Renan
48%
Arthur Lira
45%
Marina JHC
10%
Dr. Wanderley
3%
Alexandre Fleming
1%
Mariedson
<1%
Davi Davino Filho
<1%
Renan 48%
Arthur Lira 45%
Marina JHC 10.1%
Dr. Wanderley 2.5%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Renan
$3,248 Vol.
48%
Arthur Lira
$3,163 Vol.
45%
Marina JHC
$373 Vol.
10%
Dr. Wanderley
$419 Vol.
3%
Alexandre Fleming
$348 Vol.
1%
Mariedson
$358 Vol.
<1%
Davi Davino Filho
$263 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Alagoas Senate race for the two seats features a tight contest among Arthur Lira (PP), incumbent Renan Calheiros (MDB), and late entrant Marina JHC (PSDB), with the most recent Quaest survey from late August showing them statistically tied at 20%, 18%, and 15% respectively in combined first- and second-choice intentions amid a 3-point margin of error. High undecided rates near 19%, 86% spontaneous non-recognition of candidates, and the parallel gubernatorial matchup between JHC and Renan Filho have sustained volatility after Alfredo Gaspar's withdrawal. Trader consensus reflects these polling dynamics and the potential for shifts once formal campaigning intensifies ahead of October.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:51 AM ET
Volume
$8,171End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:51 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Alagoas Senate race for the two seats features a tight contest among Arthur Lira (PP), incumbent Renan Calheiros (MDB), and late entrant Marina JHC (PSDB), with the most recent Quaest survey from late August showing them statistically tied at 20%, 18%, and 15% respectively in combined first- and second-choice intentions amid a 3-point margin of error. High undecided rates near 19%, 86% spontaneous non-recognition of candidates, and the parallel gubernatorial matchup between JHC and Renan Filho have sustained volatility after Alfredo Gaspar's withdrawal. Trader consensus reflects these polling dynamics and the potential for shifts once formal campaigning intensifies ahead of October.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$8,171End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:51 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Alagoas Senate race for the two seats features a tight contest among Arthur Lira (PP), incumbent Renan Calheiros (MDB), and late entrant Marina JHC (PSDB), with the most recent Quaest survey from late August showing them statistically tied at 20%, 18%, and 15% respectively in combined first- and second-choice intentions amid a 3-point margin of error. High undecided rates near 19%, 86% spontaneous non-recognition of candidates, and the parallel gubernatorial matchup between JHC and Renan Filho have sustained volatility after Alfredo Gaspar's withdrawal. Trader consensus reflects these polling dynamics and the potential for shifts once formal campaigning intensifies ahead of October.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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