Recent polling from late August shows a tight three-way contest for Alagoas’s two Senate seats, with Arthur Lira, Renan Calheiros, and Marina JHC statistically tied within the margin of error in combined first- and second-choice intentions. Marina JHC’s late entry into the race after her husband JHC registered for governor has introduced a fresh option that appeals to voters seeking alternatives to long-serving figures. High undecided and blank/null shares, coupled with notable rejection levels for Lira and Renan, sustain volatility in second-place positioning. Alliances, campaign momentum in the final weeks before October voting, and any shifts in voter preference between paired choices could readily reorder the finish.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMarina JHC 36%
Renan 34%
Arthur Lira 26%
Davi Davino Filho 2.7%
$16,183 Vol.
$16,183 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Marina JHC
36%
Renan
34%
Arthur Lira
26%
Davi Davino Filho
3%
Dr. Wanderley
<1%
Mariedson
<1%
Alexandre Fleming
<1%
Marina JHC 36%
Renan 34%
Arthur Lira 26%
Davi Davino Filho 2.7%
$16,183 Vol.
$16,183 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Marina JHC
$3,181 Vol.
36%
Renan
$6,714 Vol.
34%
Arthur Lira
$3,951 Vol.
26%
Davi Davino Filho
$592 Vol.
3%
Dr. Wanderley
$547 Vol.
<1%
Mariedson
$699 Vol.
<1%
Alexandre Fleming
$498 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from late August shows a tight three-way contest for Alagoas’s two Senate seats, with Arthur Lira, Renan Calheiros, and Marina JHC statistically tied within the margin of error in combined first- and second-choice intentions. Marina JHC’s late entry into the race after her husband JHC registered for governor has introduced a fresh option that appeals to voters seeking alternatives to long-serving figures. High undecided and blank/null shares, coupled with notable rejection levels for Lira and Renan, sustain volatility in second-place positioning. Alliances, campaign momentum in the final weeks before October voting, and any shifts in voter preference between paired choices could readily reorder the finish.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:51 AM ET
Volume
$16,183End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:51 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from late August shows a tight three-way contest for Alagoas’s two Senate seats, with Arthur Lira, Renan Calheiros, and Marina JHC statistically tied within the margin of error in combined first- and second-choice intentions. Marina JHC’s late entry into the race after her husband JHC registered for governor has introduced a fresh option that appeals to voters seeking alternatives to long-serving figures. High undecided and blank/null shares, coupled with notable rejection levels for Lira and Renan, sustain volatility in second-place positioning. Alliances, campaign momentum in the final weeks before October voting, and any shifts in voter preference between paired choices could readily reorder the finish.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$16,183End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:51 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from late August shows a tight three-way contest for Alagoas’s two Senate seats, with Arthur Lira, Renan Calheiros, and Marina JHC statistically tied within the margin of error in combined first- and second-choice intentions. Marina JHC’s late entry into the race after her husband JHC registered for governor has introduced a fresh option that appeals to voters seeking alternatives to long-serving figures. High undecided and blank/null shares, coupled with notable rejection levels for Lira and Renan, sustain volatility in second-place positioning. Alliances, campaign momentum in the final weeks before October voting, and any shifts in voter preference between paired choices could readily reorder the finish.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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