Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding position in Mato Grosso first-round polling for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, with recent Quaest and other state surveys showing him at 43% against Lula at 26% and smaller shares for Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and others. This reflects sustained regional support in the agricultural Center-West, where voters backed Jair Bolsonaro in prior cycles and where Flavio, as the Liberal Party nominee, benefits from established party infrastructure and local candidate alignments ahead of the October vote. High shares of committed voters and limited inroads by alternatives reinforce trader consensus, though shifts among undecided respondents or late campaign developments could narrow margins before first-round tabulation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlavio Bolsonaro 94%
Lula 2.6%
Zema <1%
Ronaldo Caiado <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
94%
Lula
3%
Zema
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Edmilson Costa
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
1%
Hertz Dias
1%
Renan Santos
1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 94%
Lula 2.6%
Zema <1%
Ronaldo Caiado <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$2,961 Vol.
94%
Lula
$1,348 Vol.
3%
Zema
$481 Vol.
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$332 Vol.
1%
Edmilson Costa
$358 Vol.
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$373 Vol.
1%
Hertz Dias
$274 Vol.
1%
Renan Santos
$248 Vol.
1%
Clariana Barao
$278 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$327 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$291 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$365 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$284 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding position in Mato Grosso first-round polling for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, with recent Quaest and other state surveys showing him at 43% against Lula at 26% and smaller shares for Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and others. This reflects sustained regional support in the agricultural Center-West, where voters backed Jair Bolsonaro in prior cycles and where Flavio, as the Liberal Party nominee, benefits from established party infrastructure and local candidate alignments ahead of the October vote. High shares of committed voters and limited inroads by alternatives reinforce trader consensus, though shifts among undecided respondents or late campaign developments could narrow margins before first-round tabulation.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ET
Volume
$7,920End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding position in Mato Grosso first-round polling for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, with recent Quaest and other state surveys showing him at 43% against Lula at 26% and smaller shares for Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and others. This reflects sustained regional support in the agricultural Center-West, where voters backed Jair Bolsonaro in prior cycles and where Flavio, as the Liberal Party nominee, benefits from established party infrastructure and local candidate alignments ahead of the October vote. High shares of committed voters and limited inroads by alternatives reinforce trader consensus, though shifts among undecided respondents or late campaign developments could narrow margins before first-round tabulation.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$7,920End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding position in Mato Grosso first-round polling for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, with recent Quaest and other state surveys showing him at 43% against Lula at 26% and smaller shares for Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and others. This reflects sustained regional support in the agricultural Center-West, where voters backed Jair Bolsonaro in prior cycles and where Flavio, as the Liberal Party nominee, benefits from established party infrastructure and local candidate alignments ahead of the October vote. High shares of committed voters and limited inroads by alternatives reinforce trader consensus, though shifts among undecided respondents or late campaign developments could narrow margins before first-round tabulation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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