Lula leads trader expectations for first place in Minas Gerais' first-round presidential vote, consistent with multiple recent polls showing him ahead of Flavio Bolsonaro by margins of 8–18 points in simulated first-round scenarios from June through late August. Surveys from Datatempo, Quaest, and Real Time Big Data place Lula between 36% and 42%, with Flavio in second at 23–34% and narrowing the gap in the most recent waves, while Romeu Zema trails in third around 7–12%. Other registered names, including Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, Pablo Marçal, and Augusto Cury, register low single digits or less. The state’s large electorate and history as a bellwether continue to draw campaign focus ahead of the October 4 first round, with limited movement from major new events beyond incremental polling shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 71%
Flavio Bolsonaro 22.1%
Zema <1%
Clariana Barao <1%
$15,014 Vol.
$15,014 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
71%
Flavio Bolsonaro
22%
Zema
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Lula 71%
Flavio Bolsonaro 22.1%
Zema <1%
Clariana Barao <1%
$15,014 Vol.
$15,014 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$4,650 Vol.
71%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$3,035 Vol.
22%
Zema
$1,395 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$657 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$525 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$485 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$484 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$986 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$608 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$473 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$491 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$649 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$576 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Minas Gerais, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula leads trader expectations for first place in Minas Gerais' first-round presidential vote, consistent with multiple recent polls showing him ahead of Flavio Bolsonaro by margins of 8–18 points in simulated first-round scenarios from June through late August. Surveys from Datatempo, Quaest, and Real Time Big Data place Lula between 36% and 42%, with Flavio in second at 23–34% and narrowing the gap in the most recent waves, while Romeu Zema trails in third around 7–12%. Other registered names, including Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, Pablo Marçal, and Augusto Cury, register low single digits or less. The state’s large electorate and history as a bellwether continue to draw campaign focus ahead of the October 4 first round, with limited movement from major new events beyond incremental polling shifts.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Minas Gerais, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ET
Volume
$15,014End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Minas Gerais, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula leads trader expectations for first place in Minas Gerais' first-round presidential vote, consistent with multiple recent polls showing him ahead of Flavio Bolsonaro by margins of 8–18 points in simulated first-round scenarios from June through late August. Surveys from Datatempo, Quaest, and Real Time Big Data place Lula between 36% and 42%, with Flavio in second at 23–34% and narrowing the gap in the most recent waves, while Romeu Zema trails in third around 7–12%. Other registered names, including Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, Pablo Marçal, and Augusto Cury, register low single digits or less. The state’s large electorate and history as a bellwether continue to draw campaign focus ahead of the October 4 first round, with limited movement from major new events beyond incremental polling shifts.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Minas Gerais, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$15,014End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula leads trader expectations for first place in Minas Gerais' first-round presidential vote, consistent with multiple recent polls showing him ahead of Flavio Bolsonaro by margins of 8–18 points in simulated first-round scenarios from June through late August. Surveys from Datatempo, Quaest, and Real Time Big Data place Lula between 36% and 42%, with Flavio in second at 23–34% and narrowing the gap in the most recent waves, while Romeu Zema trails in third around 7–12%. Other registered names, including Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, Pablo Marçal, and Augusto Cury, register low single digits or less. The state’s large electorate and history as a bellwether continue to draw campaign focus ahead of the October 4 first round, with limited movement from major new events beyond incremental polling shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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