Lula maintains a commanding lead for first place in Sergipe’s October 4 first-round presidential vote, backed by recent Quaest polling showing him at 53% against Flávio Bolsonaro’s 19% and single-digit or lower support for other names including Ronaldo Caiado, Augusto Cury, and Renan Santos. Strong regional backing in the Northeast, combined with 60% government approval and 50% positive management ratings in the state, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 95.5% implied probability. With 83% of respondents in the latest survey reporting firm vote choices and limited undecided or blank/null movement, the position appears stable. Late shifts could still arise from national campaign events, candidate ineligibility rulings such as Pablo Marçal’s, or turnout changes among the remaining 17% of flexible voters.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 95.5%
Clariana Barao 2.1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 1.6%
Edmilson Costa <1%
$13,719 Vol.
$13,719 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
96%
Clariana Barao
2%
Flavio Bolsonaro
2%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
Samara
<1%
Lula 95.5%
Clariana Barao 2.1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 1.6%
Edmilson Costa <1%
$13,719 Vol.
$13,719 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$7,347 Vol.
96%
Clariana Barao
$1,079 Vol.
2%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$541 Vol.
2%
Edmilson Costa
$486 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$470 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$492 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$486 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$470 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$492 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$498 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$478 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$411 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$469 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead for first place in Sergipe’s October 4 first-round presidential vote, backed by recent Quaest polling showing him at 53% against Flávio Bolsonaro’s 19% and single-digit or lower support for other names including Ronaldo Caiado, Augusto Cury, and Renan Santos. Strong regional backing in the Northeast, combined with 60% government approval and 50% positive management ratings in the state, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 95.5% implied probability. With 83% of respondents in the latest survey reporting firm vote choices and limited undecided or blank/null movement, the position appears stable. Late shifts could still arise from national campaign events, candidate ineligibility rulings such as Pablo Marçal’s, or turnout changes among the remaining 17% of flexible voters.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ET
Volume
$13,719End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead for first place in Sergipe’s October 4 first-round presidential vote, backed by recent Quaest polling showing him at 53% against Flávio Bolsonaro’s 19% and single-digit or lower support for other names including Ronaldo Caiado, Augusto Cury, and Renan Santos. Strong regional backing in the Northeast, combined with 60% government approval and 50% positive management ratings in the state, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 95.5% implied probability. With 83% of respondents in the latest survey reporting firm vote choices and limited undecided or blank/null movement, the position appears stable. Late shifts could still arise from national campaign events, candidate ineligibility rulings such as Pablo Marçal’s, or turnout changes among the remaining 17% of flexible voters.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$13,719End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula maintains a commanding lead for first place in Sergipe’s October 4 first-round presidential vote, backed by recent Quaest polling showing him at 53% against Flávio Bolsonaro’s 19% and single-digit or lower support for other names including Ronaldo Caiado, Augusto Cury, and Renan Santos. Strong regional backing in the Northeast, combined with 60% government approval and 50% positive management ratings in the state, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 95.5% implied probability. With 83% of respondents in the latest survey reporting firm vote choices and limited undecided or blank/null movement, the position appears stable. Late shifts could still arise from national campaign events, candidate ineligibility rulings such as Pablo Marçal’s, or turnout changes among the remaining 17% of flexible voters.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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