Daniel Vilela (MDB), the incumbent governor who assumed office in March 2026 after Ronaldo Caiado’s resignation, holds a commanding position in the October 4 Goiás gubernatorial election due to consistent polling leads and strong approval metrics. A late-August Quaest survey showed him at 37% in the first round, ahead of Marconi Perillo (20%) and Wilder Morais (12%), with 64% government approval and comfortable projected second-round margins. His broad coalition, including MDB, PSD, and several other parties, plus incumbency advantages in a state where voters have shown continuity preferences, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 95.7% implied probability. Potential shifts remain possible given that 42% of respondents indicated they could still change their vote before election day, though no major recent developments have narrowed the gap.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedDaniel Vilela 95.6%
Marconi Perillo 2.9%
Vanderlan Cardoso 1.0%
Adriana Accorsi <1%
$34,704 Vol.
$34,704 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Daniel Vilela
96%
Marconi Perillo
3%
Vanderlan Cardoso
1%
Adriana Accorsi
<1%
Wilder Morais
<1%
Daniel Vilela 95.6%
Marconi Perillo 2.9%
Vanderlan Cardoso 1.0%
Adriana Accorsi <1%
$34,704 Vol.
$34,704 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Daniel Vilela
$27,572 Vol.
96%
Marconi Perillo
$2,849 Vol.
3%
Vanderlan Cardoso
$1,387 Vol.
1%
Adriana Accorsi
$1,157 Vol.
<1%
Wilder Morais
$1,738 Vol.
<1%
The Goiás gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Daniel Vilela (MDB), the incumbent governor who assumed office in March 2026 after Ronaldo Caiado’s resignation, holds a commanding position in the October 4 Goiás gubernatorial election due to consistent polling leads and strong approval metrics. A late-August Quaest survey showed him at 37% in the first round, ahead of Marconi Perillo (20%) and Wilder Morais (12%), with 64% government approval and comfortable projected second-round margins. His broad coalition, including MDB, PSD, and several other parties, plus incumbency advantages in a state where voters have shown continuity preferences, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 95.7% implied probability. Potential shifts remain possible given that 42% of respondents indicated they could still change their vote before election day, though no major recent developments have narrowed the gap.
The Goiás gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ET
Volume
$34,704End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Goiás gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Daniel Vilela (MDB), the incumbent governor who assumed office in March 2026 after Ronaldo Caiado’s resignation, holds a commanding position in the October 4 Goiás gubernatorial election due to consistent polling leads and strong approval metrics. A late-August Quaest survey showed him at 37% in the first round, ahead of Marconi Perillo (20%) and Wilder Morais (12%), with 64% government approval and comfortable projected second-round margins. His broad coalition, including MDB, PSD, and several other parties, plus incumbency advantages in a state where voters have shown continuity preferences, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 95.7% implied probability. Potential shifts remain possible given that 42% of respondents indicated they could still change their vote before election day, though no major recent developments have narrowed the gap.
The Goiás gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$34,704End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Daniel Vilela (MDB), the incumbent governor who assumed office in March 2026 after Ronaldo Caiado’s resignation, holds a commanding position in the October 4 Goiás gubernatorial election due to consistent polling leads and strong approval metrics. A late-August Quaest survey showed him at 37% in the first round, ahead of Marconi Perillo (20%) and Wilder Morais (12%), with 64% government approval and comfortable projected second-round margins. His broad coalition, including MDB, PSD, and several other parties, plus incumbency advantages in a state where voters have shown continuity preferences, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 95.7% implied probability. Potential shifts remain possible given that 42% of respondents indicated they could still change their vote before election day, though no major recent developments have narrowed the gap.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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