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icon for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
World·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

icon for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
World·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

Ronaldo Caiado 37%

Renan Santos 36%

Augusto Cury 24.2%

Flávio Bolsonaro 2.8%

Polymarket

$683,974 Vol.

Ronaldo Caiado 37%

Renan Santos 36%

Augusto Cury 24.2%

Flávio Bolsonaro 2.8%

Polymarket

$683,974 Vol.

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$70,937 Vol.

37%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$213,910 Vol.

36%

icon for Augusto Cury

Augusto Cury

$37,534 Vol.

24%

icon for Flávio Bolsonaro

Flávio Bolsonaro

$35,745 Vol.

3%

icon for Romeu Zema

Romeu Zema

$32,006 Vol.

1%

icon for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

$29,112 Vol.

1%

icon for Pablo Marçal

Pablo Marçal

$12,092 Vol.

<1%

icon for Tarcisio de Freitas

Tarcisio de Freitas

$8,773 Vol.

<1%

icon for Jair Bolsonaro

Jair Bolsonaro

$7,754 Vol.

<1%

icon for Eduardo Bolsonaro

Eduardo Bolsonaro

$46,212 Vol.

<1%

icon for Aldo Rebelo

Aldo Rebelo

$9,865 Vol.

<1%

icon for Tereza Cristina

Tereza Cristina

$4,083 Vol.

<1%

icon for Michelle Bolsonaro

Michelle Bolsonaro

$12,815 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ratinho Júnior

Ratinho Júnior

$104,175 Vol.

<1%

icon for Camilo Santana

Camilo Santana

$13,084 Vol.

<1%

icon for Geraldo Alckmin

Geraldo Alckmin

$10,711 Vol.

<1%

icon for Eduardo Leite

Eduardo Leite

$9,374 Vol.

<1%

icon for Fernando Haddad

Fernando Haddad

$23,202 Vol.

<1%

icon for Helder Barbalho

Helder Barbalho

$3,481 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from Datafolha, PoderData, Nexus, and Quaest shows Lula (PT) and Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) dominating first-round intentions at roughly 38-41% and 33-37%, respectively, leaving a tight contest among lower-polling candidates for third place. Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), Renan Santos (Missão), and Augusto Cury (Avante) each register in the low single digits, with Caiado and Santos typically edging Cury and Romeu Zema (Novo) within margins of error. The official campaign launch in mid-August, the first presidential debate on August 23 (attended only by Santos, Caiado, and Cury), and the start of free television and radio time on August 28 have given these contenders comparable visibility without producing clear separation. State-level results highlight Caiado’s regional strength in Goiás, while Santos benefits from organized national outreach; traders’ near-tie between the two reflects uncertainty over which will consolidate the modest anti-establishment or center-right vote outside the top two.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$683,974
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 5:40 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from Datafolha, PoderData, Nexus, and Quaest shows Lula (PT) and Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) dominating first-round intentions at roughly 38-41% and 33-37%, respectively, leaving a tight contest among lower-polling candidates for third place. Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), Renan Santos (Missão), and Augusto Cury (Avante) each register in the low single digits, with Caiado and Santos typically edging Cury and Romeu Zema (Novo) within margins of error. The official campaign launch in mid-August, the first presidential debate on August 23 (attended only by Santos, Caiado, and Cury), and the start of free television and radio time on August 28 have given these contenders comparable visibility without producing clear separation. State-level results highlight Caiado’s regional strength in Goiás, while Santos benefits from organized national outreach; traders’ near-tie between the two reflects uncertainty over which will consolidate the modest anti-establishment or center-right vote outside the top two.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$683,974
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 5:40 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 19 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Ronaldo Caiado" at 37%, followed by "Renan Santos" at 36%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place" has generated $684K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 11, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place," browse the 19 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place" is "Ronaldo Caiado" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Renan Santos" at 36%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.