Gracinha Caiado holds the strongest position for first place in the Goiás Senate race, backed by recent polling from Quaest and Real Time Big Data showing her at 21-27% in combined first- and second-vote scenarios, well ahead of Gustavo Gayer at 12-17%. As the União Brasil candidate and former first lady, her name recognition and ties to the state’s political establishment—linked to her husband’s governorship and presidential bid—drive trader consensus reflected in the 70.5% implied probability. Gayer, the PL federal deputy, emerges as the clearest challenger at 17.5% amid a fragmented field of over two dozen contenders, including Vanderlan Cardoso, Zacharias Calil, and Gustavo Mendanha, all polling in single digits with high undecided shares near 25%. The October 4 election for two seats leaves room for shifts before voting concludes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGracinha Caiado 71%
Gustavo Gayer 18%
Guilherme Darques 2.5%
Cintia Dias 1.3%
$11,651 Vol.
$11,651 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Gracinha Caiado
71%
Gustavo Gayer
18%
Guilherme Darques
3%
Cintia Dias
1%
Dr. Zacharias Calil
1%
Ernesto Roller
1%
Vanderlan Cardoso
1%
Oséias Varão
<1%
Iure Castro
<1%
Gustavo Mendanha
<1%
Isaura Lemos
<1%
Gracinha Caiado 71%
Gustavo Gayer 18%
Guilherme Darques 2.5%
Cintia Dias 1.3%
$11,651 Vol.
$11,651 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Gracinha Caiado
$9,048 Vol.
71%
Gustavo Gayer
$1,043 Vol.
18%
Guilherme Darques
$167 Vol.
3%
Cintia Dias
$137 Vol.
1%
Dr. Zacharias Calil
$137 Vol.
1%
Ernesto Roller
$197 Vol.
1%
Vanderlan Cardoso
$206 Vol.
1%
Oséias Varão
$167 Vol.
<1%
Iure Castro
$144 Vol.
<1%
Gustavo Mendanha
$158 Vol.
<1%
Isaura Lemos
$248 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Goiás is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Gracinha Caiado holds the strongest position for first place in the Goiás Senate race, backed by recent polling from Quaest and Real Time Big Data showing her at 21-27% in combined first- and second-vote scenarios, well ahead of Gustavo Gayer at 12-17%. As the União Brasil candidate and former first lady, her name recognition and ties to the state’s political establishment—linked to her husband’s governorship and presidential bid—drive trader consensus reflected in the 70.5% implied probability. Gayer, the PL federal deputy, emerges as the clearest challenger at 17.5% amid a fragmented field of over two dozen contenders, including Vanderlan Cardoso, Zacharias Calil, and Gustavo Mendanha, all polling in single digits with high undecided shares near 25%. The October 4 election for two seats leaves room for shifts before voting concludes.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Goiás is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:59 AM ET
Volume
$11,651End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:59 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Goiás is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Gracinha Caiado holds the strongest position for first place in the Goiás Senate race, backed by recent polling from Quaest and Real Time Big Data showing her at 21-27% in combined first- and second-vote scenarios, well ahead of Gustavo Gayer at 12-17%. As the União Brasil candidate and former first lady, her name recognition and ties to the state’s political establishment—linked to her husband’s governorship and presidential bid—drive trader consensus reflected in the 70.5% implied probability. Gayer, the PL federal deputy, emerges as the clearest challenger at 17.5% amid a fragmented field of over two dozen contenders, including Vanderlan Cardoso, Zacharias Calil, and Gustavo Mendanha, all polling in single digits with high undecided shares near 25%. The October 4 election for two seats leaves room for shifts before voting concludes.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Goiás is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$11,651End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:59 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Gracinha Caiado holds the strongest position for first place in the Goiás Senate race, backed by recent polling from Quaest and Real Time Big Data showing her at 21-27% in combined first- and second-vote scenarios, well ahead of Gustavo Gayer at 12-17%. As the União Brasil candidate and former first lady, her name recognition and ties to the state’s political establishment—linked to her husband’s governorship and presidential bid—drive trader consensus reflected in the 70.5% implied probability. Gayer, the PL federal deputy, emerges as the clearest challenger at 17.5% amid a fragmented field of over two dozen contenders, including Vanderlan Cardoso, Zacharias Calil, and Gustavo Mendanha, all polling in single digits with high undecided shares near 25%. The October 4 election for two seats leaves room for shifts before voting concludes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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