**Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 13°C as the lowest temperature recorded in Warsaw on August 28, 2026, reflecting model agreement on overnight radiational cooling under clear, high-pressure conditions.** A persistent anticyclone centered near Finland and Russia has maintained mostly clear skies and light southeasterly winds across central Poland, with official IMGW guidance and ensemble forecasts (GFS, ECMWF) projecting minimums of 13–15 °C in the pre-dawn hours before daytime highs reach 26 °C. This aligns with climatological August norms near 15 °C and recent station observations showing dew points in the low teens and minimal cloud cover promoting efficient surface heat loss. The market-implied odds near 100 % for 13 °C capture the narrow uncertainty band typical of short-range temperature forecasts; only unexpected increases in low-level moisture, wind, or late cloud cover could push the official minimum outside the 12–14 °C window before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Warsaw on August 28?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on August 28?
13°C 100.0%
11°C 2%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
$2,930 Vol.
$2,930 Vol.
Aug 28, 2026
9°C or below
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
Yes
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C or higher
No
13°C 100.0%
11°C 2%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
$2,930 Vol.
$2,930 Vol.
Aug 28, 2026
9°C or below
$89 Vol.
No
10°C
$648 Vol.
No
11°C
$70 Vol.
No
12°C
$95 Vol.
No
13°C
$866 Vol.
Yes
14°C
$220 Vol.
No
15°C
$200 Vol.
No
16°C
$45 Vol.
No
17°C
$469 Vol.
No
18°C
$129 Vol.
No
19°C or higher
$100 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 13°C as the lowest temperature recorded in Warsaw on August 28, 2026, reflecting model agreement on overnight radiational cooling under clear, high-pressure conditions.**
A persistent anticyclone centered near Finland and Russia has maintained mostly clear skies and light southeasterly winds across central Poland, with official IMGW guidance and ensemble forecasts (GFS, ECMWF) projecting minimums of 13–15 °C in the pre-dawn hours before daytime highs reach 26 °C. This aligns with climatological August norms near 15 °C and recent station observations showing dew points in the low teens and minimal cloud cover promoting efficient surface heat loss. The market-implied odds near 100 % for 13 °C capture the narrow uncertainty band typical of short-range temperature forecasts; only unexpected increases in low-level moisture, wind, or late cloud cover could push the official minimum outside the 12–14 °C window before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$2,930End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 13°C as the lowest temperature recorded in Warsaw on August 28, 2026, reflecting model agreement on overnight radiational cooling under clear, high-pressure conditions.**
A persistent anticyclone centered near Finland and Russia has maintained mostly clear skies and light southeasterly winds across central Poland, with official IMGW guidance and ensemble forecasts (GFS, ECMWF) projecting minimums of 13–15 °C in the pre-dawn hours before daytime highs reach 26 °C. This aligns with climatological August norms near 15 °C and recent station observations showing dew points in the low teens and minimal cloud cover promoting efficient surface heat loss. The market-implied odds near 100 % for 13 °C capture the narrow uncertainty band typical of short-range temperature forecasts; only unexpected increases in low-level moisture, wind, or late cloud cover could push the official minimum outside the 12–14 °C window before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,930End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
**Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 13°C as the lowest temperature recorded in Warsaw on August 28, 2026, reflecting model agreement on overnight radiational cooling under clear, high-pressure conditions.** A persistent anticyclone centered near Finland and Russia has maintained mostly clear skies and light southeasterly winds across central Poland, with official IMGW guidance and ensemble forecasts (GFS, ECMWF) projecting minimums of 13–15 °C in the pre-dawn hours before daytime highs reach 26 °C. This aligns with climatological August norms near 15 °C and recent station observations showing dew points in the low teens and minimal cloud cover promoting efficient surface heat loss. The market-implied odds near 100 % for 13 °C capture the narrow uncertainty band typical of short-range temperature forecasts; only unexpected increases in low-level moisture, wind, or late cloud cover could push the official minimum outside the 12–14 °C window before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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