**Northwesterly winds and clear skies are keeping overnight minimum temperatures in Wellington anchored near 9–11°C for August 29, with the market split almost evenly between 10°C and 11°C reflecting model uncertainty in radiational cooling rates.** Strong northwesterlies (15–25 knots) are advecting relatively mild maritime air across the region while promoting mixing that limits surface cooling, consistent with MetService guidance showing a 14°C high and 9°C low. Multiple model outputs and agency forecasts (including Met Office and local observations) converge on overnight lows of 50–55°F (10–13°C), with the calendar-day minimum most likely occurring in the pre-dawn hours under mostly clear conditions. Historical late-August climatology for Wellington places typical minima around 8–10°C, so the current setup represents near-normal to slightly milder conditions absent any incoming cold front or southerly change. The narrow 10–11°C contest stems from small differences in how numerical weather prediction models (GFS, ECMWF) handle boundary-layer stability and dew-point depression under the windy, dry regime; a modest increase in cloud cover or wind lull could nudge the reading lower, while sustained mixing supports the higher end. No major data releases or forecast shifts have occurred in the past 24–48 hours to alter this equilibrium.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on August 29?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on August 29?
10°C 42%
8°C 9%
7°C 7%
9°C 2%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
6°C or below
1%
7°C
7%
8°C
9%
9°C
2%
10°C
42%
11°C
49%
12°C
1%
13°C
1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C or higher
<1%
10°C 42%
8°C 9%
7°C 7%
9°C 2%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
6°C or below
$245 Vol.
1%
7°C
$174 Vol.
7%
8°C
$172 Vol.
9%
9°C
$177 Vol.
2%
10°C
$0 Vol.
42%
11°C
$155 Vol.
49%
12°C
$267 Vol.
1%
13°C
$62 Vol.
1%
14°C
$30 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$35 Vol.
<1%
16°C or higher
$35 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Northwesterly winds and clear skies are keeping overnight minimum temperatures in Wellington anchored near 9–11°C for August 29, with the market split almost evenly between 10°C and 11°C reflecting model uncertainty in radiational cooling rates.**
Strong northwesterlies (15–25 knots) are advecting relatively mild maritime air across the region while promoting mixing that limits surface cooling, consistent with MetService guidance showing a 14°C high and 9°C low. Multiple model outputs and agency forecasts (including Met Office and local observations) converge on overnight lows of 50–55°F (10–13°C), with the calendar-day minimum most likely occurring in the pre-dawn hours under mostly clear conditions.
Historical late-August climatology for Wellington places typical minima around 8–10°C, so the current setup represents near-normal to slightly milder conditions absent any incoming cold front or southerly change. The narrow 10–11°C contest stems from small differences in how numerical weather prediction models (GFS, ECMWF) handle boundary-layer stability and dew-point depression under the windy, dry regime; a modest increase in cloud cover or wind lull could nudge the reading lower, while sustained mixing supports the higher end. No major data releases or forecast shifts have occurred in the past 24–48 hours to alter this equilibrium.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$1,352End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Northwesterly winds and clear skies are keeping overnight minimum temperatures in Wellington anchored near 9–11°C for August 29, with the market split almost evenly between 10°C and 11°C reflecting model uncertainty in radiational cooling rates.**
Strong northwesterlies (15–25 knots) are advecting relatively mild maritime air across the region while promoting mixing that limits surface cooling, consistent with MetService guidance showing a 14°C high and 9°C low. Multiple model outputs and agency forecasts (including Met Office and local observations) converge on overnight lows of 50–55°F (10–13°C), with the calendar-day minimum most likely occurring in the pre-dawn hours under mostly clear conditions.
Historical late-August climatology for Wellington places typical minima around 8–10°C, so the current setup represents near-normal to slightly milder conditions absent any incoming cold front or southerly change. The narrow 10–11°C contest stems from small differences in how numerical weather prediction models (GFS, ECMWF) handle boundary-layer stability and dew-point depression under the windy, dry regime; a modest increase in cloud cover or wind lull could nudge the reading lower, while sustained mixing supports the higher end. No major data releases or forecast shifts have occurred in the past 24–48 hours to alter this equilibrium.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,352End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Northwesterly winds and clear skies are keeping overnight minimum temperatures in Wellington anchored near 9–11°C for August 29, with the market split almost evenly between 10°C and 11°C reflecting model uncertainty in radiational cooling rates.** Strong northwesterlies (15–25 knots) are advecting relatively mild maritime air across the region while promoting mixing that limits surface cooling, consistent with MetService guidance showing a 14°C high and 9°C low. Multiple model outputs and agency forecasts (including Met Office and local observations) converge on overnight lows of 50–55°F (10–13°C), with the calendar-day minimum most likely occurring in the pre-dawn hours under mostly clear conditions. Historical late-August climatology for Wellington places typical minima around 8–10°C, so the current setup represents near-normal to slightly milder conditions absent any incoming cold front or southerly change. The narrow 10–11°C contest stems from small differences in how numerical weather prediction models (GFS, ECMWF) handle boundary-layer stability and dew-point depression under the windy, dry regime; a modest increase in cloud cover or wind lull could nudge the reading lower, while sustained mixing supports the higher end. No major data releases or forecast shifts have occurred in the past 24–48 hours to alter this equilibrium.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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