**Forecast models indicate a clear, calm overnight period for Wellington on August 30, 2026, supporting radiative cooling that could drive the daily minimum into the 5–8°C range, explaining the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 10°C (34.5%), 11°C (30%), and 6°C or below (30.5%).** Wellington’s coastal setting and exposure to variable Southern Ocean flows make minimum temperatures sensitive to cloud cover, wind, and air-mass characteristics. Recent days featured northerly winds and scattered showers, but models show a shift to clearer skies and lighter southeasterly or variable winds by late August 29 into the 30th, reducing cloud insulation and allowing surface heat loss. This setup favors temperatures near or slightly below the late-August climatological minimum (typically 7–8°C at Wellington Airport), with the exact low hinging on how quickly winds ease and whether any residual moisture lingers. Traders appear to weigh the balance between these radiative-cooling conditions and the risk of slightly warmer advection or urban effects keeping readings closer to 10–11°C. Upcoming official MetService or NIWA updates and the next model runs will likely refine the outcome before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on August 30?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on August 30?
8°C 49%
12°C 49%
13°C 49%
16°C or higher 44%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
6°C or below
20%
7°C
15%
8°C
49%
9°C
26%
10°C
29%
11°C
30%
12°C
49%
13°C
49%
14°C
2%
15°C
8%
16°C or higher
44%
8°C 49%
12°C 49%
13°C 49%
16°C or higher 44%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
6°C or below
$5 Vol.
20%
7°C
$0 Vol.
15%
8°C
$0 Vol.
49%
9°C
$0 Vol.
26%
10°C
$0 Vol.
29%
11°C
$0 Vol.
30%
12°C
$0 Vol.
49%
13°C
$5 Vol.
49%
14°C
$5 Vol.
2%
15°C
$5 Vol.
8%
16°C or higher
$5 Vol.
44%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models indicate a clear, calm overnight period for Wellington on August 30, 2026, supporting radiative cooling that could drive the daily minimum into the 5–8°C range, explaining the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 10°C (34.5%), 11°C (30%), and 6°C or below (30.5%).**
Wellington’s coastal setting and exposure to variable Southern Ocean flows make minimum temperatures sensitive to cloud cover, wind, and air-mass characteristics. Recent days featured northerly winds and scattered showers, but models show a shift to clearer skies and lighter southeasterly or variable winds by late August 29 into the 30th, reducing cloud insulation and allowing surface heat loss. This setup favors temperatures near or slightly below the late-August climatological minimum (typically 7–8°C at Wellington Airport), with the exact low hinging on how quickly winds ease and whether any residual moisture lingers.
Traders appear to weigh the balance between these radiative-cooling conditions and the risk of slightly warmer advection or urban effects keeping readings closer to 10–11°C. Upcoming official MetService or NIWA updates and the next model runs will likely refine the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$25End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models indicate a clear, calm overnight period for Wellington on August 30, 2026, supporting radiative cooling that could drive the daily minimum into the 5–8°C range, explaining the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 10°C (34.5%), 11°C (30%), and 6°C or below (30.5%).**
Wellington’s coastal setting and exposure to variable Southern Ocean flows make minimum temperatures sensitive to cloud cover, wind, and air-mass characteristics. Recent days featured northerly winds and scattered showers, but models show a shift to clearer skies and lighter southeasterly or variable winds by late August 29 into the 30th, reducing cloud insulation and allowing surface heat loss. This setup favors temperatures near or slightly below the late-August climatological minimum (typically 7–8°C at Wellington Airport), with the exact low hinging on how quickly winds ease and whether any residual moisture lingers.
Traders appear to weigh the balance between these radiative-cooling conditions and the risk of slightly warmer advection or urban effects keeping readings closer to 10–11°C. Upcoming official MetService or NIWA updates and the next model runs will likely refine the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$25End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models indicate a clear, calm overnight period for Wellington on August 30, 2026, supporting radiative cooling that could drive the daily minimum into the 5–8°C range, explaining the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 10°C (34.5%), 11°C (30%), and 6°C or below (30.5%).** Wellington’s coastal setting and exposure to variable Southern Ocean flows make minimum temperatures sensitive to cloud cover, wind, and air-mass characteristics. Recent days featured northerly winds and scattered showers, but models show a shift to clearer skies and lighter southeasterly or variable winds by late August 29 into the 30th, reducing cloud insulation and allowing surface heat loss. This setup favors temperatures near or slightly below the late-August climatological minimum (typically 7–8°C at Wellington Airport), with the exact low hinging on how quickly winds ease and whether any residual moisture lingers. Traders appear to weigh the balance between these radiative-cooling conditions and the risk of slightly warmer advection or urban effects keeping readings closer to 10–11°C. Upcoming official MetService or NIWA updates and the next model runs will likely refine the outcome before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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