Reinaldo Azambuja (PL) holds a clear lead in the race for first place in Mato Grosso do Sul’s two-seat Senate election, backed by consistent polling advantages in August 2026 surveys from Quaest and other institutes. He registers 22–31% in first-choice scenarios, ahead of running mate Capitão Contar (PL) at 15–20%, with Soraya Thronicke (PSB) and Vander Loubet (PT) trailing further behind. Azambuja’s positioning stems from strong regional support across interior areas, his record as former governor, and the PL’s August convention formalizing the dual candidacy alongside state-level alliances. Nelsinho Trad’s withdrawal to serve as substitute has consolidated right-leaning votes. With the October 4 first round approaching and high undecided shares in recent polls, trader pricing reflects Azambuja’s frontrunner status while leaving room for shifts from late campaign dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedReinaldo Azambuja 74%
Capitão Contar 11%
Roberto Oshiro 4.3%
Vander Loubet 3.3%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Reinaldo Azambuja
74%
Capitão Contar
11%
Roberto Oshiro
4%
Vander Loubet
3%
Beto do Movimento
2%
Valderi Garcia
2%
Luiz Lemes
1%
Soraya
1%
Daniel Junior
1%
Valter da Comagran
<1%
Reinaldo Azambuja 74%
Capitão Contar 11%
Roberto Oshiro 4.3%
Vander Loubet 3.3%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Reinaldo Azambuja
$4,062 Vol.
74%
Capitão Contar
$1,887 Vol.
11%
Roberto Oshiro
$228 Vol.
4%
Vander Loubet
$157 Vol.
3%
Beto do Movimento
$164 Vol.
2%
Valderi Garcia
$167 Vol.
2%
Luiz Lemes
$185 Vol.
1%
Soraya
$164 Vol.
1%
Daniel Junior
$152 Vol.
1%
Valter da Comagran
$226 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Reinaldo Azambuja (PL) holds a clear lead in the race for first place in Mato Grosso do Sul’s two-seat Senate election, backed by consistent polling advantages in August 2026 surveys from Quaest and other institutes. He registers 22–31% in first-choice scenarios, ahead of running mate Capitão Contar (PL) at 15–20%, with Soraya Thronicke (PSB) and Vander Loubet (PT) trailing further behind. Azambuja’s positioning stems from strong regional support across interior areas, his record as former governor, and the PL’s August convention formalizing the dual candidacy alongside state-level alliances. Nelsinho Trad’s withdrawal to serve as substitute has consolidated right-leaning votes. With the October 4 first round approaching and high undecided shares in recent polls, trader pricing reflects Azambuja’s frontrunner status while leaving room for shifts from late campaign dynamics.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Volume
$7,392End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Reinaldo Azambuja (PL) holds a clear lead in the race for first place in Mato Grosso do Sul’s two-seat Senate election, backed by consistent polling advantages in August 2026 surveys from Quaest and other institutes. He registers 22–31% in first-choice scenarios, ahead of running mate Capitão Contar (PL) at 15–20%, with Soraya Thronicke (PSB) and Vander Loubet (PT) trailing further behind. Azambuja’s positioning stems from strong regional support across interior areas, his record as former governor, and the PL’s August convention formalizing the dual candidacy alongside state-level alliances. Nelsinho Trad’s withdrawal to serve as substitute has consolidated right-leaning votes. With the October 4 first round approaching and high undecided shares in recent polls, trader pricing reflects Azambuja’s frontrunner status while leaving room for shifts from late campaign dynamics.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$7,392End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Reinaldo Azambuja (PL) holds a clear lead in the race for first place in Mato Grosso do Sul’s two-seat Senate election, backed by consistent polling advantages in August 2026 surveys from Quaest and other institutes. He registers 22–31% in first-choice scenarios, ahead of running mate Capitão Contar (PL) at 15–20%, with Soraya Thronicke (PSB) and Vander Loubet (PT) trailing further behind. Azambuja’s positioning stems from strong regional support across interior areas, his record as former governor, and the PL’s August convention formalizing the dual candidacy alongside state-level alliances. Nelsinho Trad’s withdrawal to serve as substitute has consolidated right-leaning votes. With the October 4 first round approaching and high undecided shares in recent polls, trader pricing reflects Azambuja’s frontrunner status while leaving room for shifts from late campaign dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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