Janaina Riva (MDB) leads the implied probability for second place in Mato Grosso’s two-seat Senate contest, reflecting consistent polling placement behind frontrunner Mauro Mendes (União). Recent surveys, including Paraná Pesquisas (21–23 August) and Quaest (21–24 August), show Riva capturing 18–34% support in multi-vote scenarios, ahead of José Medeiros (PL), Pedro Taques (PSB), and Carlos Fávaro (PSD), who trail in the low-to-mid teens. Her visibility as the state assembly’s top vote-getter, appeal among women voters, and party infrastructure underpin the positioning, while a crowded field and high undecided shares keep secondary outcomes fluid ahead of the October vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJanaina Riva 61%
Mauro Mendes 20%
Galvan 8.1%
Jose Medeiros 5.8%
$10,013 Vol.
$10,013 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Janaina Riva
61%
Mauro Mendes
20%
Galvan
8%
Jose Medeiros
6%
Professor Nelson Ferreira
3%
Pedro Taques
2%
Beny Godoy
2%
Fávaro
7%
Margareth Buzetti
<1%
Coronel Darwin
<1%
Janaina Riva 61%
Mauro Mendes 20%
Galvan 8.1%
Jose Medeiros 5.8%
$10,013 Vol.
$10,013 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Janaina Riva
$6,826 Vol.
61%
Mauro Mendes
$1,175 Vol.
20%
Galvan
$229 Vol.
8%
Jose Medeiros
$247 Vol.
6%
Professor Nelson Ferreira
$229 Vol.
3%
Pedro Taques
$364 Vol.
2%
Beny Godoy
$240 Vol.
2%
Fávaro
$248 Vol.
7%
Margareth Buzetti
$229 Vol.
<1%
Coronel Darwin
$229 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Janaina Riva (MDB) leads the implied probability for second place in Mato Grosso’s two-seat Senate contest, reflecting consistent polling placement behind frontrunner Mauro Mendes (União). Recent surveys, including Paraná Pesquisas (21–23 August) and Quaest (21–24 August), show Riva capturing 18–34% support in multi-vote scenarios, ahead of José Medeiros (PL), Pedro Taques (PSB), and Carlos Fávaro (PSD), who trail in the low-to-mid teens. Her visibility as the state assembly’s top vote-getter, appeal among women voters, and party infrastructure underpin the positioning, while a crowded field and high undecided shares keep secondary outcomes fluid ahead of the October vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Volume
$10,013End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Janaina Riva (MDB) leads the implied probability for second place in Mato Grosso’s two-seat Senate contest, reflecting consistent polling placement behind frontrunner Mauro Mendes (União). Recent surveys, including Paraná Pesquisas (21–23 August) and Quaest (21–24 August), show Riva capturing 18–34% support in multi-vote scenarios, ahead of José Medeiros (PL), Pedro Taques (PSB), and Carlos Fávaro (PSD), who trail in the low-to-mid teens. Her visibility as the state assembly’s top vote-getter, appeal among women voters, and party infrastructure underpin the positioning, while a crowded field and high undecided shares keep secondary outcomes fluid ahead of the October vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$10,013End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Janaina Riva (MDB) leads the implied probability for second place in Mato Grosso’s two-seat Senate contest, reflecting consistent polling placement behind frontrunner Mauro Mendes (União). Recent surveys, including Paraná Pesquisas (21–23 August) and Quaest (21–24 August), show Riva capturing 18–34% support in multi-vote scenarios, ahead of José Medeiros (PL), Pedro Taques (PSB), and Carlos Fávaro (PSD), who trail in the low-to-mid teens. Her visibility as the state assembly’s top vote-getter, appeal among women voters, and party infrastructure underpin the positioning, while a crowded field and high undecided shares keep secondary outcomes fluid ahead of the October vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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