Recent polling from late August shows a technical tie among leading contenders for the second Senate seat in Paraná, with Alexandre Curi, Gleisi Hoffmann, Filipe Barros, and Deltan Dallagnol clustered within margins of error amid 28% undecided and high spontaneous indecision. Curi's consolidated support edges ahead in some surveys due to his Assembly presidency and municipal networks, while Dallagnol's position reflects lingering questions over eligibility challenges from prior mandate cassation rulings. Regional variations, party alliances including PL and PT dynamics, and the two-seat structure keep probabilities fluid, with potential shifts from further candidate registrations, court decisions on filings, or late campaign consolidation ahead of the October vote. Trader consensus reflects this ongoing uncertainty rather than any single frontrunner.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAlexandre Curi 36%
Deltan Dallagnol 21%
Filipe Barros 14%
Cristina Reis Graeml 10.3%
$22,621 Vol.
$22,621 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Alexandre Curi
36%
Deltan Dallagnol
21%
Filipe Barros
14%
Cristina Reis Graeml
10%
Gleisi
6%
Joaquim do MLB
1%
Marcelo Marcelino
<1%
Dr. Rosinha
<1%
Karen Guerreiro
<1%
Alexandre Curi 36%
Deltan Dallagnol 21%
Filipe Barros 14%
Cristina Reis Graeml 10.3%
$22,621 Vol.
$22,621 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Alexandre Curi
$2,775 Vol.
36%
Deltan Dallagnol
$5,539 Vol.
21%
Filipe Barros
$8,888 Vol.
14%
Cristina Reis Graeml
$872 Vol.
10%
Gleisi
$2,321 Vol.
6%
Joaquim do MLB
$639 Vol.
1%
Marcelo Marcelino
$530 Vol.
<1%
Dr. Rosinha
$499 Vol.
<1%
Karen Guerreiro
$560 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from late August shows a technical tie among leading contenders for the second Senate seat in Paraná, with Alexandre Curi, Gleisi Hoffmann, Filipe Barros, and Deltan Dallagnol clustered within margins of error amid 28% undecided and high spontaneous indecision. Curi's consolidated support edges ahead in some surveys due to his Assembly presidency and municipal networks, while Dallagnol's position reflects lingering questions over eligibility challenges from prior mandate cassation rulings. Regional variations, party alliances including PL and PT dynamics, and the two-seat structure keep probabilities fluid, with potential shifts from further candidate registrations, court decisions on filings, or late campaign consolidation ahead of the October vote. Trader consensus reflects this ongoing uncertainty rather than any single frontrunner.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ET
Volume
$22,621End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from late August shows a technical tie among leading contenders for the second Senate seat in Paraná, with Alexandre Curi, Gleisi Hoffmann, Filipe Barros, and Deltan Dallagnol clustered within margins of error amid 28% undecided and high spontaneous indecision. Curi's consolidated support edges ahead in some surveys due to his Assembly presidency and municipal networks, while Dallagnol's position reflects lingering questions over eligibility challenges from prior mandate cassation rulings. Regional variations, party alliances including PL and PT dynamics, and the two-seat structure keep probabilities fluid, with potential shifts from further candidate registrations, court decisions on filings, or late campaign consolidation ahead of the October vote. Trader consensus reflects this ongoing uncertainty rather than any single frontrunner.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$22,621End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from late August shows a technical tie among leading contenders for the second Senate seat in Paraná, with Alexandre Curi, Gleisi Hoffmann, Filipe Barros, and Deltan Dallagnol clustered within margins of error amid 28% undecided and high spontaneous indecision. Curi's consolidated support edges ahead in some surveys due to his Assembly presidency and municipal networks, while Dallagnol's position reflects lingering questions over eligibility challenges from prior mandate cassation rulings. Regional variations, party alliances including PL and PT dynamics, and the two-seat structure keep probabilities fluid, with potential shifts from further candidate registrations, court decisions on filings, or late campaign consolidation ahead of the October vote. Trader consensus reflects this ongoing uncertainty rather than any single frontrunner.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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