Recent polling from late August shows Allyson Bezerra (União) holding a narrow lead in stimulated scenarios at 25-30%, with Cadu de Lula (PT) and Álvaro Dias (PL) close behind in technical ties within margins of error, amid 16-57% undecided or blank responses depending on methodology. Official campaigning began mid-August, featuring street mobilization and President Lula’s visit to bolster Cadu de Lula, yet early data indicate limited immediate shifts. High indecision, the first-round threshold requiring over 50% for outright victory, and the three-candidate fragmentation sustain the competitive positioning reflected in trader consensus. Further separation could emerge from upcoming debates, additional surveys tracking base consolidation, or late developments affecting turnout in key regions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAllyson 56%
Cadu de Lula 21%
Álvaro Dias 13%
Professor Roberio Paulino <1%
$18,373 Vol.
$18,373 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Allyson
56%
Cadu de Lula
21%
Álvaro Dias
13%
Professor Roberio Paulino
<1%
Rodrigo Bolsonaro
<1%
Arinalda do MLB
<1%
Carlos Jararaca
<1%
Dário Barbosa
<1%
Henrique Lyra
<1%
Allyson 56%
Cadu de Lula 21%
Álvaro Dias 13%
Professor Roberio Paulino <1%
$18,373 Vol.
$18,373 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Allyson
$7,757 Vol.
56%
Cadu de Lula
$5,493 Vol.
21%
Álvaro Dias
$1,475 Vol.
13%
Professor Roberio Paulino
$684 Vol.
<1%
Rodrigo Bolsonaro
$671 Vol.
<1%
Arinalda do MLB
$556 Vol.
<1%
Carlos Jararaca
$579 Vol.
<1%
Dário Barbosa
$575 Vol.
<1%
Henrique Lyra
$584 Vol.
<1%
The Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from late August shows Allyson Bezerra (União) holding a narrow lead in stimulated scenarios at 25-30%, with Cadu de Lula (PT) and Álvaro Dias (PL) close behind in technical ties within margins of error, amid 16-57% undecided or blank responses depending on methodology. Official campaigning began mid-August, featuring street mobilization and President Lula’s visit to bolster Cadu de Lula, yet early data indicate limited immediate shifts. High indecision, the first-round threshold requiring over 50% for outright victory, and the three-candidate fragmentation sustain the competitive positioning reflected in trader consensus. Further separation could emerge from upcoming debates, additional surveys tracking base consolidation, or late developments affecting turnout in key regions.
The Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ET
Volume
$18,373End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from late August shows Allyson Bezerra (União) holding a narrow lead in stimulated scenarios at 25-30%, with Cadu de Lula (PT) and Álvaro Dias (PL) close behind in technical ties within margins of error, amid 16-57% undecided or blank responses depending on methodology. Official campaigning began mid-August, featuring street mobilization and President Lula’s visit to bolster Cadu de Lula, yet early data indicate limited immediate shifts. High indecision, the first-round threshold requiring over 50% for outright victory, and the three-candidate fragmentation sustain the competitive positioning reflected in trader consensus. Further separation could emerge from upcoming debates, additional surveys tracking base consolidation, or late developments affecting turnout in key regions.
The Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$18,373End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from late August shows Allyson Bezerra (União) holding a narrow lead in stimulated scenarios at 25-30%, with Cadu de Lula (PT) and Álvaro Dias (PL) close behind in technical ties within margins of error, amid 16-57% undecided or blank responses depending on methodology. Official campaigning began mid-August, featuring street mobilization and President Lula’s visit to bolster Cadu de Lula, yet early data indicate limited immediate shifts. High indecision, the first-round threshold requiring over 50% for outright victory, and the three-candidate fragmentation sustain the competitive positioning reflected in trader consensus. Further separation could emerge from upcoming debates, additional surveys tracking base consolidation, or late developments affecting turnout in key regions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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