Jorginho Mello (PL), the incumbent governor of Santa Catarina seeking re-election on October 4, 2026, holds a commanding position in the race. Recent Quaest polling from late August shows him at 50% in the first-round stimulated scenario, well ahead of João Rodrigues (PSD) at 17%, with other declared candidates including Gelson Merísio, Marcelo Brigadeiro, and Décio Lima registering low single digits amid high government approval ratings near 70%. Traders price his victory at 96.3%, reflecting his 2022 landslide, consistent polling leads, strong conservative voter base, and party infrastructure in the state. A first-round win remains possible given the margin. Late developments such as shifts in undecided voters (currently around 16%), turnout changes, or unexpected coalition realignments could narrow the gap, though structural advantages make such reversals difficult before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJorginho Mello 96.4%
João Rodrigues 2.2%
Marcelo Brigadeiro 1.3%
Décio Lima <1%
$116,511 Vol.
$116,511 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Jorginho Mello
96%
João Rodrigues
2%
Marcelo Brigadeiro
1%
Décio Lima
<1%
Afrânio Boppré
<1%
Marcos Vieira
<1%
Adriano Silva
<1%
Gelson Merisio
<1%
Jorginho Mello 96.4%
João Rodrigues 2.2%
Marcelo Brigadeiro 1.3%
Décio Lima <1%
$116,511 Vol.
$116,511 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Jorginho Mello
$27,303 Vol.
96%
João Rodrigues
$2,705 Vol.
2%
Marcelo Brigadeiro
$15,397 Vol.
1%
Décio Lima
$63,837 Vol.
<1%
Afrânio Boppré
$2,077 Vol.
<1%
Marcos Vieira
$1,750 Vol.
<1%
Adriano Silva
$1,540 Vol.
<1%
Gelson Merisio
$1,902 Vol.
<1%
The Santa Catarina gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Jorginho Mello (PL), the incumbent governor of Santa Catarina seeking re-election on October 4, 2026, holds a commanding position in the race. Recent Quaest polling from late August shows him at 50% in the first-round stimulated scenario, well ahead of João Rodrigues (PSD) at 17%, with other declared candidates including Gelson Merísio, Marcelo Brigadeiro, and Décio Lima registering low single digits amid high government approval ratings near 70%. Traders price his victory at 96.3%, reflecting his 2022 landslide, consistent polling leads, strong conservative voter base, and party infrastructure in the state. A first-round win remains possible given the margin. Late developments such as shifts in undecided voters (currently around 16%), turnout changes, or unexpected coalition realignments could narrow the gap, though structural advantages make such reversals difficult before election day.
The Santa Catarina gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ET
Volume
$116,511End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Santa Catarina gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Jorginho Mello (PL), the incumbent governor of Santa Catarina seeking re-election on October 4, 2026, holds a commanding position in the race. Recent Quaest polling from late August shows him at 50% in the first-round stimulated scenario, well ahead of João Rodrigues (PSD) at 17%, with other declared candidates including Gelson Merísio, Marcelo Brigadeiro, and Décio Lima registering low single digits amid high government approval ratings near 70%. Traders price his victory at 96.3%, reflecting his 2022 landslide, consistent polling leads, strong conservative voter base, and party infrastructure in the state. A first-round win remains possible given the margin. Late developments such as shifts in undecided voters (currently around 16%), turnout changes, or unexpected coalition realignments could narrow the gap, though structural advantages make such reversals difficult before election day.
The Santa Catarina gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$116,511End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Jorginho Mello (PL), the incumbent governor of Santa Catarina seeking re-election on October 4, 2026, holds a commanding position in the race. Recent Quaest polling from late August shows him at 50% in the first-round stimulated scenario, well ahead of João Rodrigues (PSD) at 17%, with other declared candidates including Gelson Merísio, Marcelo Brigadeiro, and Décio Lima registering low single digits amid high government approval ratings near 70%. Traders price his victory at 96.3%, reflecting his 2022 landslide, consistent polling leads, strong conservative voter base, and party infrastructure in the state. A first-round win remains possible given the margin. Late developments such as shifts in undecided voters (currently around 16%), turnout changes, or unexpected coalition realignments could narrow the gap, though structural advantages make such reversals difficult before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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