Fábio Mitidieri, the incumbent PSD governor seeking re-election, holds a commanding position in the Sergipe race ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. Recent August polling averages show him leading or competitive in first-round scenarios against Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos), with margins reflecting his established name recognition, state resources, and coalition support. Valmir, a former Itabaiana mayor running his second statewide bid, trails consistently in most recent surveys despite earlier fluctuations. Minor candidates including Ricardo Marques (PL), Emanuel Cacho, Taty Cristina, and Dr. Helton register negligible support and face structural barriers to advancing. Trader pricing aligns with the wisdom of crowds assessing Fábio’s path to a first-round or runoff victory, while noting that late shifts in turnout or alliances could still influence the outcome before ballots close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFábio 78%
Valmir de Francisquinho 15%
Taty Cristina de Jesus <1%
Emanuel Cacho <1%
$15,646 Vol.
$15,646 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Fábio
78%
Valmir de Francisquinho
15%
Taty Cristina de Jesus
1%
Emanuel Cacho
<1%
Dr. Helton
<1%
Ricardo Marques
<1%
Fábio 78%
Valmir de Francisquinho 15%
Taty Cristina de Jesus <1%
Emanuel Cacho <1%
$15,646 Vol.
$15,646 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Fábio
$12,372 Vol.
78%
Valmir de Francisquinho
$1,193 Vol.
15%
Taty Cristina de Jesus
$537 Vol.
1%
Emanuel Cacho
$518 Vol.
<1%
Dr. Helton
$582 Vol.
<1%
Ricardo Marques
$443 Vol.
<1%
The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Fábio Mitidieri, the incumbent PSD governor seeking re-election, holds a commanding position in the Sergipe race ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. Recent August polling averages show him leading or competitive in first-round scenarios against Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos), with margins reflecting his established name recognition, state resources, and coalition support. Valmir, a former Itabaiana mayor running his second statewide bid, trails consistently in most recent surveys despite earlier fluctuations. Minor candidates including Ricardo Marques (PL), Emanuel Cacho, Taty Cristina, and Dr. Helton register negligible support and face structural barriers to advancing. Trader pricing aligns with the wisdom of crowds assessing Fábio’s path to a first-round or runoff victory, while noting that late shifts in turnout or alliances could still influence the outcome before ballots close.
The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ET
Volume
$15,646End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Fábio Mitidieri, the incumbent PSD governor seeking re-election, holds a commanding position in the Sergipe race ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. Recent August polling averages show him leading or competitive in first-round scenarios against Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos), with margins reflecting his established name recognition, state resources, and coalition support. Valmir, a former Itabaiana mayor running his second statewide bid, trails consistently in most recent surveys despite earlier fluctuations. Minor candidates including Ricardo Marques (PL), Emanuel Cacho, Taty Cristina, and Dr. Helton register negligible support and face structural barriers to advancing. Trader pricing aligns with the wisdom of crowds assessing Fábio’s path to a first-round or runoff victory, while noting that late shifts in turnout or alliances could still influence the outcome before ballots close.
The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$15,646End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Fábio Mitidieri, the incumbent PSD governor seeking re-election, holds a commanding position in the Sergipe race ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. Recent August polling averages show him leading or competitive in first-round scenarios against Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos), with margins reflecting his established name recognition, state resources, and coalition support. Valmir, a former Itabaiana mayor running his second statewide bid, trails consistently in most recent surveys despite earlier fluctuations. Minor candidates including Ricardo Marques (PL), Emanuel Cacho, Taty Cristina, and Dr. Helton register negligible support and face structural barriers to advancing. Trader pricing aligns with the wisdom of crowds assessing Fábio’s path to a first-round or runoff victory, while noting that late shifts in turnout or alliances could still influence the outcome before ballots close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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