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Politics·Brazil

Sergipe Governor Election Winner

icon for Sergipe Governor Election Winner
Politics·Brazil

Sergipe Governor Election Winner

Fábio 78%

Valmir de Francisquinho 13%

Taty Cristina de Jesus <1%

Emanuel Cacho <1%

Polymarket

$15,602 Vol.

Fábio 78%

Valmir de Francisquinho 13%

Taty Cristina de Jesus <1%

Emanuel Cacho <1%

Polymarket

$15,602 Vol.

icon for Fábio

Fábio

$12,328 Vol.

78%

icon for Valmir de Francisquinho

Valmir de Francisquinho

$1,193 Vol.

13%

icon for Taty Cristina de Jesus

Taty Cristina de Jesus

$537 Vol.

1%

icon for Emanuel Cacho

Emanuel Cacho

$518 Vol.

<1%

icon for Dr. Helton

Dr. Helton

$582 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ricardo Marques

Ricardo Marques

$443 Vol.

<1%

The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).**Fábio Mitidieri (PSD), the incumbent governor seeking re-election, holds a commanding lead in the Sergipe governor race at 77.5% on Polymarket, reflecting consistent polling advantages and structural factors ahead of the October 4, 2026 first-round vote.** Recent August surveys (e.g., Veritá, CTAS, IFP) show him at 38–51% in stimulated scenarios, often 10–20 points ahead of Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos, 12% market price), with Ricardo Marques (PL), Emanuel Cacho (PSDB), Dr. Helton (PSOL), and Taty Cristina (DC) registering low single digits or less. Fábio benefits from incumbency, a broad alliance including PP, União Brasil, and others, and polling trends that have widened his margin since mid-2026, including strong performance in valid-vote projections that point toward a potential first-round win. Valmir, the main challenger and former Itabaiana mayor running for the second time, maintains opposition support but trails amid higher rejection rates in some surveys. Minor candidates face limited visibility and party infrastructure. Trader pricing aligns with the wisdom of crowds assessing these dynamics, though the race remains subject to final campaign developments, turnout, and any late shifts in the closely watched Northeast state.

The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$15,602
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).**Fábio Mitidieri (PSD), the incumbent governor seeking re-election, holds a commanding lead in the Sergipe governor race at 77.5% on Polymarket, reflecting consistent polling advantages and structural factors ahead of the October 4, 2026 first-round vote.** Recent August surveys (e.g., Veritá, CTAS, IFP) show him at 38–51% in stimulated scenarios, often 10–20 points ahead of Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos, 12% market price), with Ricardo Marques (PL), Emanuel Cacho (PSDB), Dr. Helton (PSOL), and Taty Cristina (DC) registering low single digits or less. Fábio benefits from incumbency, a broad alliance including PP, União Brasil, and others, and polling trends that have widened his margin since mid-2026, including strong performance in valid-vote projections that point toward a potential first-round win. Valmir, the main challenger and former Itabaiana mayor running for the second time, maintains opposition support but trails amid higher rejection rates in some surveys. Minor candidates face limited visibility and party infrastructure. Trader pricing aligns with the wisdom of crowds assessing these dynamics, though the race remains subject to final campaign developments, turnout, and any late shifts in the closely watched Northeast state.

The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$15,602
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Sergipe Governor Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Fábio" at 78%, followed by "Valmir de Francisquinho" at 13%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 78¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 78% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Sergipe Governor Election Winner" has generated $15.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Sergipe Governor Election Winner," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Sergipe Governor Election Winner" is "Fábio" at 78%, meaning the market assigns a 78% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Valmir de Francisquinho" at 13%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Sergipe Governor Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.