Recent polls from late August 2026 show Eduardo Gomes (PL) leading the Tocantins Senate race for one of two seats, with Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) and Gaguim (União) positioned as the strongest contenders for second place amid a fragmented field. The Real Time Big Data survey (conducted August 21–25) placed Gomes at 26% and Guimarães at 18%, followed by Gaguim at 10% and Vanderlei Luxemburgo at 9%, reflecting voter preferences for established state and federal legislators over newer or celebrity entrants. High undecided and blank vote shares, combined with the dual-vote system, sustain tight competition for the runner-up spot. Further campaign events, endorsements, or additional polling before the October 4 election could shift positioning among the top challengers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAlexandre Guimarães 40%
Gaguim 35.3%
Eduardo Gomes 20.6%
Vanderlei Luxemburgo 5%
$20,420 Vol.
$20,420 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Alexandre Guimarães
40%
Gaguim
35%
Eduardo Gomes
21%
Vanderlei Luxemburgo
5%
Nilton Santos
2%
Ronaldo Dimas
2%
Eli Borges
2%
Apóstolo Flavio Braga
2%
Paulo Mourão
1%
Fábio Ribeiro
1%
Helio Rodrigues Bolsonaro
<1%
Osvany Luz
<1%
Professor Osvaldo
<1%
Alexandre Guimarães 40%
Gaguim 35.3%
Eduardo Gomes 20.6%
Vanderlei Luxemburgo 5%
$20,420 Vol.
$20,420 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Alexandre Guimarães
$10,915 Vol.
40%
Gaguim
$2,429 Vol.
35%
Eduardo Gomes
$764 Vol.
21%
Vanderlei Luxemburgo
$333 Vol.
5%
Nilton Santos
$293 Vol.
2%
Ronaldo Dimas
$282 Vol.
2%
Eli Borges
$334 Vol.
2%
Apóstolo Flavio Braga
$243 Vol.
2%
Paulo Mourão
$3,763 Vol.
1%
Fábio Ribeiro
$236 Vol.
1%
Helio Rodrigues Bolsonaro
$265 Vol.
<1%
Osvany Luz
$325 Vol.
<1%
Professor Osvaldo
$240 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polls from late August 2026 show Eduardo Gomes (PL) leading the Tocantins Senate race for one of two seats, with Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) and Gaguim (União) positioned as the strongest contenders for second place amid a fragmented field. The Real Time Big Data survey (conducted August 21–25) placed Gomes at 26% and Guimarães at 18%, followed by Gaguim at 10% and Vanderlei Luxemburgo at 9%, reflecting voter preferences for established state and federal legislators over newer or celebrity entrants. High undecided and blank vote shares, combined with the dual-vote system, sustain tight competition for the runner-up spot. Further campaign events, endorsements, or additional polling before the October 4 election could shift positioning among the top challengers.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ET
Volume
$20,420End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polls from late August 2026 show Eduardo Gomes (PL) leading the Tocantins Senate race for one of two seats, with Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) and Gaguim (União) positioned as the strongest contenders for second place amid a fragmented field. The Real Time Big Data survey (conducted August 21–25) placed Gomes at 26% and Guimarães at 18%, followed by Gaguim at 10% and Vanderlei Luxemburgo at 9%, reflecting voter preferences for established state and federal legislators over newer or celebrity entrants. High undecided and blank vote shares, combined with the dual-vote system, sustain tight competition for the runner-up spot. Further campaign events, endorsements, or additional polling before the October 4 election could shift positioning among the top challengers.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$20,420End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls from late August 2026 show Eduardo Gomes (PL) leading the Tocantins Senate race for one of two seats, with Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) and Gaguim (União) positioned as the strongest contenders for second place amid a fragmented field. The Real Time Big Data survey (conducted August 21–25) placed Gomes at 26% and Guimarães at 18%, followed by Gaguim at 10% and Vanderlei Luxemburgo at 9%, reflecting voter preferences for established state and federal legislators over newer or celebrity entrants. High undecided and blank vote shares, combined with the dual-vote system, sustain tight competition for the runner-up spot. Further campaign events, endorsements, or additional polling before the October 4 election could shift positioning among the top challengers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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