Rui Costa (PT) leads trader consensus for first place in the Bahia Senate race due to consistent polling leads of 22–51% across multiple surveys since June 2026, far ahead of other contenders in a contest where voters select two senators. As former governor and recent presidential chief of staff, Costa benefits from high name recognition, PT organizational strength, and alignment with the state’s governing coalition ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. Jaques Wagner (PT), the incumbent seeking reelection, trails in second with 16–41% support but saw modest erosion after a June federal police operation. Opposition figures such as João Roma (PL) and Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) register in the low-to-mid teens, while minor candidates remain near zero. Recent party conventions finalized the PT ticket without altering the established hierarchy.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRui Costa 83%
Jaques Wagner 14.4%
João Roma 1.5%
Angelo Coronel <1%
$17,646 Vol.
$17,646 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Rui Costa
83%
Jaques Wagner
14%
João Roma
2%
Angelo Coronel
<1%
Professora Delliana
<1%
Carlos Sodré
<1%
Gregorio Gould
<1%
Marcelo Carvalho
<1%
Marcelo Millet
<1%
Marcelo Santtana
<1%
Rui Costa 83%
Jaques Wagner 14.4%
João Roma 1.5%
Angelo Coronel <1%
$17,646 Vol.
$17,646 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Rui Costa
$6,045 Vol.
83%
Jaques Wagner
$4,264 Vol.
14%
João Roma
$1,864 Vol.
2%
Angelo Coronel
$1,137 Vol.
<1%
Professora Delliana
$629 Vol.
<1%
Carlos Sodré
$800 Vol.
<1%
Gregorio Gould
$691 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Carvalho
$741 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Millet
$729 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Santtana
$746 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Rui Costa (PT) leads trader consensus for first place in the Bahia Senate race due to consistent polling leads of 22–51% across multiple surveys since June 2026, far ahead of other contenders in a contest where voters select two senators. As former governor and recent presidential chief of staff, Costa benefits from high name recognition, PT organizational strength, and alignment with the state’s governing coalition ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. Jaques Wagner (PT), the incumbent seeking reelection, trails in second with 16–41% support but saw modest erosion after a June federal police operation. Opposition figures such as João Roma (PL) and Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) register in the low-to-mid teens, while minor candidates remain near zero. Recent party conventions finalized the PT ticket without altering the established hierarchy.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ET
Volume
$17,646End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Rui Costa (PT) leads trader consensus for first place in the Bahia Senate race due to consistent polling leads of 22–51% across multiple surveys since June 2026, far ahead of other contenders in a contest where voters select two senators. As former governor and recent presidential chief of staff, Costa benefits from high name recognition, PT organizational strength, and alignment with the state’s governing coalition ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. Jaques Wagner (PT), the incumbent seeking reelection, trails in second with 16–41% support but saw modest erosion after a June federal police operation. Opposition figures such as João Roma (PL) and Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) register in the low-to-mid teens, while minor candidates remain near zero. Recent party conventions finalized the PT ticket without altering the established hierarchy.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$17,646End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Rui Costa (PT) leads trader consensus for first place in the Bahia Senate race due to consistent polling leads of 22–51% across multiple surveys since June 2026, far ahead of other contenders in a contest where voters select two senators. As former governor and recent presidential chief of staff, Costa benefits from high name recognition, PT organizational strength, and alignment with the state’s governing coalition ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. Jaques Wagner (PT), the incumbent seeking reelection, trails in second with 16–41% support but saw modest erosion after a June federal police operation. Opposition figures such as João Roma (PL) and Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) register in the low-to-mid teens, while minor candidates remain near zero. Recent party conventions finalized the PT ticket without altering the established hierarchy.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions