Recent polls from Datafolha, Nexus, and others show incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading first-round voting intentions at 39–41 percent, with Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party consistently placed second at 33–37 percent, well ahead of Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Romeu Zema. Jair Bolsonaro remains ineligible due to a final conviction and suspended political rights, positioning his son as the primary right-wing standard-bearer after his July party convention. Official campaigning began August 16, 2026, with limited early debates and stable polling trends reinforcing trader expectations that Flávio will secure the runner-up spot on October 4 absent a major late shift among fragmented opposition candidates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlávio Bolsonaro 88%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 8.8%
Renan Santos 3.2%
Ronaldo Caiado <1%
$5,331,408 Vol.
$5,331,408 Vol.
Oct 3, 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro
88%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
9%
Renan Santos
3%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Romeu Zema
<1%
Camilo Santana
<1%
Fernando Haddad
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Augusto Cury
<1%
Helder Barbalho
<1%
Tereza Cristina
<1%
Flávio Bolsonaro 88%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 8.8%
Renan Santos 3.2%
Ronaldo Caiado <1%
$5,331,408 Vol.
$5,331,408 Vol.
Oct 3, 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro
$383,929 Vol.
88%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
$306,699 Vol.
9%
Renan Santos
$1,143,668 Vol.
3%
Ronaldo Caiado
$385,184 Vol.
<1%
Romeu Zema
$334,241 Vol.
<1%
Camilo Santana
$159,264 Vol.
<1%
Fernando Haddad
$765,392 Vol.
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
$130,877 Vol.
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
$92,785 Vol.
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
$229,654 Vol.
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
$171,496 Vol.
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
$158,838 Vol.
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
$701,993 Vol.
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
$182,611 Vol.
<1%
Eduardo Leite
$100,012 Vol.
<1%
Augusto Cury
$28,284 Vol.
<1%
Helder Barbalho
$20,972 Vol.
<1%
Tereza Cristina
$35,511 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from Datafolha, Nexus, and others show incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading first-round voting intentions at 39–41 percent, with Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party consistently placed second at 33–37 percent, well ahead of Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Romeu Zema. Jair Bolsonaro remains ineligible due to a final conviction and suspended political rights, positioning his son as the primary right-wing standard-bearer after his July party convention. Official campaigning began August 16, 2026, with limited early debates and stable polling trends reinforcing trader expectations that Flávio will secure the runner-up spot on October 4 absent a major late shift among fragmented opposition candidates.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Volume
$5,331,408End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from Datafolha, Nexus, and others show incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading first-round voting intentions at 39–41 percent, with Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party consistently placed second at 33–37 percent, well ahead of Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Romeu Zema. Jair Bolsonaro remains ineligible due to a final conviction and suspended political rights, positioning his son as the primary right-wing standard-bearer after his July party convention. Official campaigning began August 16, 2026, with limited early debates and stable polling trends reinforcing trader expectations that Flávio will secure the runner-up spot on October 4 absent a major late shift among fragmented opposition candidates.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$5,331,408End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls from Datafolha, Nexus, and others show incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading first-round voting intentions at 39–41 percent, with Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party consistently placed second at 33–37 percent, well ahead of Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Romeu Zema. Jair Bolsonaro remains ineligible due to a final conviction and suspended political rights, positioning his son as the primary right-wing standard-bearer after his July party convention. Official campaigning began August 16, 2026, with limited early debates and stable polling trends reinforcing trader expectations that Flávio will secure the runner-up spot on October 4 absent a major late shift among fragmented opposition candidates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
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