Renato Casagrande holds a commanding lead in Espírito Santo’s October 4, 2026, Senate race for one of two seats, reflecting consistent polling advantages of 24-37% across multiple surveys since mid-2025. As the term-limited PSB governor who stepped down in April to pursue the Senate seat, he benefits from high statewide name recognition built through prior legislative and executive roles. Rivals including incumbent senators Fabiano Contarato and Marcos do Val, along with figures such as Paulo Hartung, Sérgio Meneguelli, and Maguinha Malta, trail significantly with fragmented support. Recent candidate registrations through mid-August and ongoing campaign alliances have not altered his frontrunner status. While a late scandal, sharp turnout shift among key voter blocs, or unexpected consolidation behind a single challenger could narrow the margin before election day, current evidence points to structural barriers for competitors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRenato Casagrande 96.0%
Fabiano Contarato 2.5%
Rodney Miranda 1.0%
Leonardo Monjardim <1%
$10,209 Vol.
$10,209 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Renato Casagrande
96%
Fabiano Contarato
2%
Rodney Miranda
1%
Leonardo Monjardim
1%
Marcos do Val
1%
Maguinha Malta
<1%
Professor Fabian
<1%
Callegari
<1%
Rose de Freitas
<1%
Sergio Meneguelli
<1%
Evair de Melo
<1%
Renato Casagrande 96.0%
Fabiano Contarato 2.5%
Rodney Miranda 1.0%
Leonardo Monjardim <1%
$10,209 Vol.
$10,209 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Renato Casagrande
$5,661 Vol.
96%
Fabiano Contarato
$398 Vol.
2%
Rodney Miranda
$576 Vol.
1%
Leonardo Monjardim
$580 Vol.
1%
Marcos do Val
$590 Vol.
1%
Maguinha Malta
$594 Vol.
<1%
Professor Fabian
$299 Vol.
<1%
Callegari
$367 Vol.
<1%
Rose de Freitas
$359 Vol.
<1%
Sergio Meneguelli
$402 Vol.
<1%
Evair de Melo
$382 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Renato Casagrande holds a commanding lead in Espírito Santo’s October 4, 2026, Senate race for one of two seats, reflecting consistent polling advantages of 24-37% across multiple surveys since mid-2025. As the term-limited PSB governor who stepped down in April to pursue the Senate seat, he benefits from high statewide name recognition built through prior legislative and executive roles. Rivals including incumbent senators Fabiano Contarato and Marcos do Val, along with figures such as Paulo Hartung, Sérgio Meneguelli, and Maguinha Malta, trail significantly with fragmented support. Recent candidate registrations through mid-August and ongoing campaign alliances have not altered his frontrunner status. While a late scandal, sharp turnout shift among key voter blocs, or unexpected consolidation behind a single challenger could narrow the margin before election day, current evidence points to structural barriers for competitors.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ET
Volume
$10,209End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Renato Casagrande holds a commanding lead in Espírito Santo’s October 4, 2026, Senate race for one of two seats, reflecting consistent polling advantages of 24-37% across multiple surveys since mid-2025. As the term-limited PSB governor who stepped down in April to pursue the Senate seat, he benefits from high statewide name recognition built through prior legislative and executive roles. Rivals including incumbent senators Fabiano Contarato and Marcos do Val, along with figures such as Paulo Hartung, Sérgio Meneguelli, and Maguinha Malta, trail significantly with fragmented support. Recent candidate registrations through mid-August and ongoing campaign alliances have not altered his frontrunner status. While a late scandal, sharp turnout shift among key voter blocs, or unexpected consolidation behind a single challenger could narrow the margin before election day, current evidence points to structural barriers for competitors.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$10,209End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Renato Casagrande holds a commanding lead in Espírito Santo’s October 4, 2026, Senate race for one of two seats, reflecting consistent polling advantages of 24-37% across multiple surveys since mid-2025. As the term-limited PSB governor who stepped down in April to pursue the Senate seat, he benefits from high statewide name recognition built through prior legislative and executive roles. Rivals including incumbent senators Fabiano Contarato and Marcos do Val, along with figures such as Paulo Hartung, Sérgio Meneguelli, and Maguinha Malta, trail significantly with fragmented support. Recent candidate registrations through mid-August and ongoing campaign alliances have not altered his frontrunner status. While a late scandal, sharp turnout shift among key voter blocs, or unexpected consolidation behind a single challenger could narrow the margin before election day, current evidence points to structural barriers for competitors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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