Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) holds the strongest position for first place in the Federal District Senate race due to consistent leads in recent polling, including 25% in the latest Quaest survey and 19% in Datafolha, outpacing other contenders amid high undecided shares. Her visibility as former first lady and PL backing provide a measurable edge in a contest for two seats where voters select two candidates. Leila do Vôlei (PDT), the incumbent seeking re-election, trails at 16-17% but remains competitive through established local support and recent campaign launch events. Erika Kokay (PT) and Bia Kicis (PL) register lower single-digit to low-teens figures, while remaining candidates show minimal traction. Late August polling shifts and name recognition continue to shape the implied probabilities reflected in current market pricing ahead of the October vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMichelle Bolsonaro 68%
Leila do Vôlei 27%
Erika Kokay 4.9%
Bia Kicis <1%
$17,286 Vol.
$17,286 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Michelle Bolsonaro
68%
Leila do Vôlei
27%
Erika Kokay
5%
Bia Kicis
1%
Professor Guilherme Amorim
<1%
Avenir Rosa
<1%
Guto Felício dos Santos
<1%
Ronaldo Fonseca
<1%
David Horn
<1%
Sebastião Coelho
<1%
Marley
<1%
Tiago
<1%
Zanata
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro 68%
Leila do Vôlei 27%
Erika Kokay 4.9%
Bia Kicis <1%
$17,286 Vol.
$17,286 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Michelle Bolsonaro
$6,152 Vol.
68%
Leila do Vôlei
$2,496 Vol.
27%
Erika Kokay
$1,288 Vol.
5%
Bia Kicis
$2,802 Vol.
1%
Professor Guilherme Amorim
$623 Vol.
<1%
Avenir Rosa
$478 Vol.
<1%
Guto Felício dos Santos
$499 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Fonseca
$490 Vol.
<1%
David Horn
$505 Vol.
<1%
Sebastião Coelho
$556 Vol.
<1%
Marley
$381 Vol.
<1%
Tiago
$489 Vol.
<1%
Zanata
$530 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) holds the strongest position for first place in the Federal District Senate race due to consistent leads in recent polling, including 25% in the latest Quaest survey and 19% in Datafolha, outpacing other contenders amid high undecided shares. Her visibility as former first lady and PL backing provide a measurable edge in a contest for two seats where voters select two candidates. Leila do Vôlei (PDT), the incumbent seeking re-election, trails at 16-17% but remains competitive through established local support and recent campaign launch events. Erika Kokay (PT) and Bia Kicis (PL) register lower single-digit to low-teens figures, while remaining candidates show minimal traction. Late August polling shifts and name recognition continue to shape the implied probabilities reflected in current market pricing ahead of the October vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ET
Volume
$17,286End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) holds the strongest position for first place in the Federal District Senate race due to consistent leads in recent polling, including 25% in the latest Quaest survey and 19% in Datafolha, outpacing other contenders amid high undecided shares. Her visibility as former first lady and PL backing provide a measurable edge in a contest for two seats where voters select two candidates. Leila do Vôlei (PDT), the incumbent seeking re-election, trails at 16-17% but remains competitive through established local support and recent campaign launch events. Erika Kokay (PT) and Bia Kicis (PL) register lower single-digit to low-teens figures, while remaining candidates show minimal traction. Late August polling shifts and name recognition continue to shape the implied probabilities reflected in current market pricing ahead of the October vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$17,286End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) holds the strongest position for first place in the Federal District Senate race due to consistent leads in recent polling, including 25% in the latest Quaest survey and 19% in Datafolha, outpacing other contenders amid high undecided shares. Her visibility as former first lady and PL backing provide a measurable edge in a contest for two seats where voters select two candidates. Leila do Vôlei (PDT), the incumbent seeking re-election, trails at 16-17% but remains competitive through established local support and recent campaign launch events. Erika Kokay (PT) and Bia Kicis (PL) register lower single-digit to low-teens figures, while remaining candidates show minimal traction. Late August polling shifts and name recognition continue to shape the implied probabilities reflected in current market pricing ahead of the October vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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