Eduardo Riedel’s commanding 91.5% implied probability reflects his position as incumbent governor with 62% approval and a 40% first-round lead in the latest Quaest survey released August 25, 2026, well ahead of Fábio Trad (13%) and Delcídio Amaral (8%). A broad coalition encompassing PP, PL, MDB, and other parties, combined with strong second-round margins across tested matchups, has consolidated trader sentiment ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. Opposition fragmentation and 66% of voters saying Riedel deserves re-election further entrench the frontrunner status. Late shifts could still arise from major scandals, health events, or an unexpected economic downturn that alters undecided voters in the final weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedEduardo Riedel 92%
Economista Renato Gomes 1.4%
Jeferson Bezerra <1%
João Henrique Catan <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Eduardo Riedel
92%
Economista Renato Gomes
1%
Jeferson Bezerra
1%
João Henrique Catan
1%
Fábio Trad
<1%
Delcidio Amaral
<1%
Daniel Lemes
<1%
Lucien Rezende
<1%
Eduardo Riedel 92%
Economista Renato Gomes 1.4%
Jeferson Bezerra <1%
João Henrique Catan <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Eduardo Riedel
$2,873 Vol.
92%
Economista Renato Gomes
$247 Vol.
1%
Jeferson Bezerra
$379 Vol.
1%
João Henrique Catan
$262 Vol.
1%
Fábio Trad
$299 Vol.
<1%
Delcidio Amaral
$351 Vol.
<1%
Daniel Lemes
$265 Vol.
<1%
Lucien Rezende
$365 Vol.
<1%
The Mato Grosso do Sul gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Eduardo Riedel’s commanding 91.5% implied probability reflects his position as incumbent governor with 62% approval and a 40% first-round lead in the latest Quaest survey released August 25, 2026, well ahead of Fábio Trad (13%) and Delcídio Amaral (8%). A broad coalition encompassing PP, PL, MDB, and other parties, combined with strong second-round margins across tested matchups, has consolidated trader sentiment ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. Opposition fragmentation and 66% of voters saying Riedel deserves re-election further entrench the frontrunner status. Late shifts could still arise from major scandals, health events, or an unexpected economic downturn that alters undecided voters in the final weeks.
The Mato Grosso do Sul gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:33 AM ET
Volume
$5,041End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:33 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Mato Grosso do Sul gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Eduardo Riedel’s commanding 91.5% implied probability reflects his position as incumbent governor with 62% approval and a 40% first-round lead in the latest Quaest survey released August 25, 2026, well ahead of Fábio Trad (13%) and Delcídio Amaral (8%). A broad coalition encompassing PP, PL, MDB, and other parties, combined with strong second-round margins across tested matchups, has consolidated trader sentiment ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. Opposition fragmentation and 66% of voters saying Riedel deserves re-election further entrench the frontrunner status. Late shifts could still arise from major scandals, health events, or an unexpected economic downturn that alters undecided voters in the final weeks.
The Mato Grosso do Sul gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$5,041End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:33 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Eduardo Riedel’s commanding 91.5% implied probability reflects his position as incumbent governor with 62% approval and a 40% first-round lead in the latest Quaest survey released August 25, 2026, well ahead of Fábio Trad (13%) and Delcídio Amaral (8%). A broad coalition encompassing PP, PL, MDB, and other parties, combined with strong second-round margins across tested matchups, has consolidated trader sentiment ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. Opposition fragmentation and 66% of voters saying Riedel deserves re-election further entrench the frontrunner status. Late shifts could still arise from major scandals, health events, or an unexpected economic downturn that alters undecided voters in the final weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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