Recent Quaest and Datafolha surveys from mid-to-late August show Marília Arraes (PDT) holding a narrow lead in first-preference voting for Pernambuco's two Senate seats, ahead of running mate Humberto Costa (PT) within the margin of error, with Mendonça Filho (PL) and Eduardo da Fonte (PP) further back. High undecided and blank/null shares exceeding 45% keep the outcome fluid ahead of the October vote. Both front-runners benefit from the same PSB-led alliance with João Campos, while rival slates backed by Governor Raquel Lyra and independent PL efforts create divided opposition. The multi-vote format and limited campaign time since official start have prevented clear separation, leaving trader pricing aligned with poll volatility and coalition dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMarília Arraes 55%
Humberto Costa 25.9%
Mendonça Filho 2.5%
Eduardo da Fonte 1.6%
$25,808 Vol.
$25,808 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Marília Arraes
55%
Humberto Costa
26%
Mendonça Filho
3%
Eduardo da Fonte
2%
Gorett Bitu
<1%
Mailson da Silva Neto
<1%
Mariano Macedo
<1%
Paulo Rubem Santiago
<1%
Carlos Sant'Anna
<1%
Túlio Gadêlha
<1%
Samuel Timoteo
<1%
Pastor Gilvan Costa
<1%
Marília Arraes 55%
Humberto Costa 25.9%
Mendonça Filho 2.5%
Eduardo da Fonte 1.6%
$25,808 Vol.
$25,808 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Marília Arraes
$11,864 Vol.
55%
Humberto Costa
$7,844 Vol.
26%
Mendonça Filho
$1,212 Vol.
3%
Eduardo da Fonte
$798 Vol.
2%
Gorett Bitu
$525 Vol.
<1%
Mailson da Silva Neto
$493 Vol.
<1%
Mariano Macedo
$470 Vol.
<1%
Paulo Rubem Santiago
$542 Vol.
<1%
Carlos Sant'Anna
$549 Vol.
<1%
Túlio Gadêlha
$486 Vol.
<1%
Samuel Timoteo
$500 Vol.
<1%
Pastor Gilvan Costa
$523 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent Quaest and Datafolha surveys from mid-to-late August show Marília Arraes (PDT) holding a narrow lead in first-preference voting for Pernambuco's two Senate seats, ahead of running mate Humberto Costa (PT) within the margin of error, with Mendonça Filho (PL) and Eduardo da Fonte (PP) further back. High undecided and blank/null shares exceeding 45% keep the outcome fluid ahead of the October vote. Both front-runners benefit from the same PSB-led alliance with João Campos, while rival slates backed by Governor Raquel Lyra and independent PL efforts create divided opposition. The multi-vote format and limited campaign time since official start have prevented clear separation, leaving trader pricing aligned with poll volatility and coalition dynamics.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ET
Volume
$25,808End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent Quaest and Datafolha surveys from mid-to-late August show Marília Arraes (PDT) holding a narrow lead in first-preference voting for Pernambuco's two Senate seats, ahead of running mate Humberto Costa (PT) within the margin of error, with Mendonça Filho (PL) and Eduardo da Fonte (PP) further back. High undecided and blank/null shares exceeding 45% keep the outcome fluid ahead of the October vote. Both front-runners benefit from the same PSB-led alliance with João Campos, while rival slates backed by Governor Raquel Lyra and independent PL efforts create divided opposition. The multi-vote format and limited campaign time since official start have prevented clear separation, leaving trader pricing aligned with poll volatility and coalition dynamics.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$25,808End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Quaest and Datafolha surveys from mid-to-late August show Marília Arraes (PDT) holding a narrow lead in first-preference voting for Pernambuco's two Senate seats, ahead of running mate Humberto Costa (PT) within the margin of error, with Mendonça Filho (PL) and Eduardo da Fonte (PP) further back. High undecided and blank/null shares exceeding 45% keep the outcome fluid ahead of the October vote. Both front-runners benefit from the same PSB-led alliance with João Campos, while rival slates backed by Governor Raquel Lyra and independent PL efforts create divided opposition. The multi-vote format and limited campaign time since official start have prevented clear separation, leaving trader pricing aligned with poll volatility and coalition dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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