Recent polls from late August show a technical three-way tie for the top spots in São Paulo’s Senate race among Guilherme Derrite (PP), Marina Silva (Rede), and Simone Tebet (PSB), each near 11-12% in consolidated first- and second-choice voting, with André do Prado (PL) and Ricardo Salles (Novo) further back. High undecided shares (27%) and blank/null intentions (around 18%) keep the field fragmented ahead of the October vote for the state’s two seats. Derrite’s positioning as the main conservative-aligned contender tied to Governor Tarcísio de Freitas contrasts with the PT-backed ticket featuring Tebet and Silva, while mutual attacks—including Tebet’s recent criticism of Derrite’s record as security secretary—highlight campaign dynamics that could shift support. Trader pricing reflects this uncertainty and the potential for late consolidation or turnout effects to determine first place.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGuilherme Derrite 49%
Simone Tebet 22.0%
Marina Silva 11%
André do Prado 4.5%
$33,030 Vol.
$33,030 Vol.
Guilherme Derrite
49%
Simone Tebet
22%
Marina Silva
11%
André do Prado
5%
Salles
3%
William Teixeira
<1%
Soninha Francine
<1%
Weller Gonçalves
<1%
Maíra de Souza
<1%
Marcio Alves
<1%
Petter Maahs
<1%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira
<1%
Ednelson Cesaretti
<1%
Geraldo Rufino
<1%
Guilherme Derrite 49%
Simone Tebet 22.0%
Marina Silva 11%
André do Prado 4.5%
$33,030 Vol.
$33,030 Vol.
Guilherme Derrite
49%
Simone Tebet
22%
Marina Silva
11%
André do Prado
5%
Salles
3%
William Teixeira
<1%
Soninha Francine
<1%
Weller Gonçalves
<1%
Maíra de Souza
<1%
Marcio Alves
<1%
Petter Maahs
<1%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira
<1%
Ednelson Cesaretti
<1%
Geraldo Rufino
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls from late August show a technical three-way tie for the top spots in São Paulo’s Senate race among Guilherme Derrite (PP), Marina Silva (Rede), and Simone Tebet (PSB), each near 11-12% in consolidated first- and second-choice voting, with André do Prado (PL) and Ricardo Salles (Novo) further back. High undecided shares (27%) and blank/null intentions (around 18%) keep the field fragmented ahead of the October vote for the state’s two seats. Derrite’s positioning as the main conservative-aligned contender tied to Governor Tarcísio de Freitas contrasts with the PT-backed ticket featuring Tebet and Silva, while mutual attacks—including Tebet’s recent criticism of Derrite’s record as security secretary—highlight campaign dynamics that could shift support. Trader pricing reflects this uncertainty and the potential for late consolidation or turnout effects to determine first place.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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