Renato Casagrande (PSB) holds a commanding lead in polling for one of Espírito Santo’s two Senate seats in the October 4, 2026 election, with consistent first-place showings of 24–37% across June–July surveys from institutes including Real Time Big Data, Quaest, and Perfil. Traders price his frontrunner status at 96% because the former three-term governor stepped down in April to run, bringing unmatched statewide name recognition, prior Senate experience, and a broad center-left coalition supporting him and gubernatorial candidate Ricardo Ferraço. Incumbents Fabiano Contarato and Marcos do Val, along with other names such as Sérgio Meneguelli, Rose de Freitas, and Maguinha Malta, trail in single or low-double digits amid a fragmented field. The second seat remains more competitive, but Casagrande’s margin has held steady through registration deadlines with no major late shifts reported.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRenato Casagrande 96.0%
Fabiano Contarato 2.4%
Rodney Miranda 1.0%
Marcos do Val <1%
$10,209 Vol.
$10,209 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Renato Casagrande
96%
Fabiano Contarato
2%
Rodney Miranda
1%
Marcos do Val
1%
Leonardo Monjardim
<1%
Maguinha Malta
<1%
Professor Fabian
<1%
Callegari
<1%
Rose de Freitas
<1%
Sergio Meneguelli
<1%
Evair de Melo
<1%
Renato Casagrande 96.0%
Fabiano Contarato 2.4%
Rodney Miranda 1.0%
Marcos do Val <1%
$10,209 Vol.
$10,209 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Renato Casagrande
$5,661 Vol.
96%
Fabiano Contarato
$398 Vol.
2%
Rodney Miranda
$576 Vol.
1%
Marcos do Val
$590 Vol.
1%
Leonardo Monjardim
$580 Vol.
<1%
Maguinha Malta
$594 Vol.
<1%
Professor Fabian
$299 Vol.
<1%
Callegari
$367 Vol.
<1%
Rose de Freitas
$359 Vol.
<1%
Sergio Meneguelli
$402 Vol.
<1%
Evair de Melo
$382 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Renato Casagrande (PSB) holds a commanding lead in polling for one of Espírito Santo’s two Senate seats in the October 4, 2026 election, with consistent first-place showings of 24–37% across June–July surveys from institutes including Real Time Big Data, Quaest, and Perfil. Traders price his frontrunner status at 96% because the former three-term governor stepped down in April to run, bringing unmatched statewide name recognition, prior Senate experience, and a broad center-left coalition supporting him and gubernatorial candidate Ricardo Ferraço. Incumbents Fabiano Contarato and Marcos do Val, along with other names such as Sérgio Meneguelli, Rose de Freitas, and Maguinha Malta, trail in single or low-double digits amid a fragmented field. The second seat remains more competitive, but Casagrande’s margin has held steady through registration deadlines with no major late shifts reported.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ET
Volume
$10,209End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Renato Casagrande (PSB) holds a commanding lead in polling for one of Espírito Santo’s two Senate seats in the October 4, 2026 election, with consistent first-place showings of 24–37% across June–July surveys from institutes including Real Time Big Data, Quaest, and Perfil. Traders price his frontrunner status at 96% because the former three-term governor stepped down in April to run, bringing unmatched statewide name recognition, prior Senate experience, and a broad center-left coalition supporting him and gubernatorial candidate Ricardo Ferraço. Incumbents Fabiano Contarato and Marcos do Val, along with other names such as Sérgio Meneguelli, Rose de Freitas, and Maguinha Malta, trail in single or low-double digits amid a fragmented field. The second seat remains more competitive, but Casagrande’s margin has held steady through registration deadlines with no major late shifts reported.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$10,209End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Renato Casagrande (PSB) holds a commanding lead in polling for one of Espírito Santo’s two Senate seats in the October 4, 2026 election, with consistent first-place showings of 24–37% across June–July surveys from institutes including Real Time Big Data, Quaest, and Perfil. Traders price his frontrunner status at 96% because the former three-term governor stepped down in April to run, bringing unmatched statewide name recognition, prior Senate experience, and a broad center-left coalition supporting him and gubernatorial candidate Ricardo Ferraço. Incumbents Fabiano Contarato and Marcos do Val, along with other names such as Sérgio Meneguelli, Rose de Freitas, and Maguinha Malta, trail in single or low-double digits amid a fragmented field. The second seat remains more competitive, but Casagrande’s margin has held steady through registration deadlines with no major late shifts reported.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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