Cleitinho Azevedo (Republicanos) holds a commanding lead in the Minas Gerais gubernatorial race, reflected in trader pricing near 70%. Multiple August 2026 surveys, including Quaest (29%) and Datafolha (32%), show him well ahead of Patrus Ananias (PT) and Alexandre Kalil (PDT), who trail in the low double digits, with current governor Mateus Simões (PSD) and others further back. His position stems from consistent polling dominance since mid-year, bolstered by official candidacy confirmation in early August after internal party talks and strong backing among bolsonarista voters. Second-round simulations further reinforce his advantage. No major late-August shifts have altered the frontrunner dynamic ahead of the October vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCleitinho Azevedo 72.8%
Alexandre Kalil 9.6%
Gabriel Azevedo 3.9%
Patrus Ananias 2.9%
$367,277 Vol.
$367,277 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Cleitinho Azevedo
73%
Alexandre Kalil
10%
Gabriel Azevedo
4%
Patrus Ananias
3%
Mateus Simões
3%
Flávio Roscoe
3%
Rodrigo Pacheco
1%
Benoni Mendes
1%
Euclydes Pettersen
1%
Luís Eduardo Falcão
1%
Vittorio Medioli
<1%
Nikolas Ferreira
<1%
Gleidson Azevedo
<1%
Aécio Neves
<1%
Marcelo Aro
<1%
Tadeu Leite
<1%
Alexandre Silveira
<1%
Cleitinho Azevedo 72.8%
Alexandre Kalil 9.6%
Gabriel Azevedo 3.9%
Patrus Ananias 2.9%
$367,277 Vol.
$367,277 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Cleitinho Azevedo
$157,914 Vol.
73%
Alexandre Kalil
$39,212 Vol.
10%
Gabriel Azevedo
$9,323 Vol.
4%
Patrus Ananias
$10,329 Vol.
3%
Mateus Simões
$32,328 Vol.
3%
Flávio Roscoe
$10,089 Vol.
3%
Rodrigo Pacheco
$20,614 Vol.
1%
Benoni Mendes
$6,953 Vol.
1%
Euclydes Pettersen
$4,929 Vol.
1%
Luís Eduardo Falcão
$7,312 Vol.
1%
Vittorio Medioli
$5,090 Vol.
<1%
Nikolas Ferreira
$8,379 Vol.
<1%
Gleidson Azevedo
$4,715 Vol.
<1%
Aécio Neves
$4,934 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Aro
$33,865 Vol.
<1%
Tadeu Leite
$6,026 Vol.
<1%
Alexandre Silveira
$5,265 Vol.
<1%
The Minas Gerais gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Cleitinho Azevedo (Republicanos) holds a commanding lead in the Minas Gerais gubernatorial race, reflected in trader pricing near 70%. Multiple August 2026 surveys, including Quaest (29%) and Datafolha (32%), show him well ahead of Patrus Ananias (PT) and Alexandre Kalil (PDT), who trail in the low double digits, with current governor Mateus Simões (PSD) and others further back. His position stems from consistent polling dominance since mid-year, bolstered by official candidacy confirmation in early August after internal party talks and strong backing among bolsonarista voters. Second-round simulations further reinforce his advantage. No major late-August shifts have altered the frontrunner dynamic ahead of the October vote.
The Minas Gerais gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Volume
$367,277End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Minas Gerais gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Cleitinho Azevedo (Republicanos) holds a commanding lead in the Minas Gerais gubernatorial race, reflected in trader pricing near 70%. Multiple August 2026 surveys, including Quaest (29%) and Datafolha (32%), show him well ahead of Patrus Ananias (PT) and Alexandre Kalil (PDT), who trail in the low double digits, with current governor Mateus Simões (PSD) and others further back. His position stems from consistent polling dominance since mid-year, bolstered by official candidacy confirmation in early August after internal party talks and strong backing among bolsonarista voters. Second-round simulations further reinforce his advantage. No major late-August shifts have altered the frontrunner dynamic ahead of the October vote.
The Minas Gerais gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$367,277End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Cleitinho Azevedo (Republicanos) holds a commanding lead in the Minas Gerais gubernatorial race, reflected in trader pricing near 70%. Multiple August 2026 surveys, including Quaest (29%) and Datafolha (32%), show him well ahead of Patrus Ananias (PT) and Alexandre Kalil (PDT), who trail in the low double digits, with current governor Mateus Simões (PSD) and others further back. His position stems from consistent polling dominance since mid-year, bolstered by official candidacy confirmation in early August after internal party talks and strong backing among bolsonarista voters. Second-round simulations further reinforce his advantage. No major late-August shifts have altered the frontrunner dynamic ahead of the October vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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